US Waiver Set to Keep Russian Oil Exports to India Near Record High

US Sanctions Waiver Supports High Russian Oil Exports to India in April, May

Russian Oil Exports to India Remain Strong Amid Sanctions

Record High Imports and Export Trends

MOSCOW/LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following a new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities and vessels, traders said and data showed on Tuesday.

The robust exports to India - the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China and largest importer of its flagship Urals grade - will likely help Moscow replenish state coffers under pressure due to military spending for the war in Ukraine.

India shipped in a record 2.25 million barrels per day of oil from Russia in March, nearly double February's volumes, making Russian oil 50% of its imports. 

Shipping Data and Port Arrivals

Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are set to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week of April 20 to 27, up from 1.67 million bpd the previous week, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed. 

Impact of Ukrainian Drone Attacks

The mid-April dip in Russian oil supplies was likely caused by export disruptions resulting from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports at the end of March, two sources said.

However, Russian supplies are expected to average more than 2 million bpd for the full month and will likely remain around that level, or possibly increase, in May, three sources involved in the trade said.

US Sanctions Waiver and Its Effects

Waiver Extension Amid Geopolitical Tensions

U.S. EXTENDS SANCTIONS WAIVER AMID IRAN WAR DISRUPTIONS

Washington issued a 30-day waiver in mid-March for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products to help stabilise global energy markets roiled by its war with Iran. It renewed the waiver last week.

Continued Deliveries via Non-Sanctioned Channels

Despite the sanctions, which are intended to pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal with Kyiv, Russian oil deliveries to India have continued via non-sanctioned enterprises in the supply chain, traders and analysts said.

Indian refiners had already been actively purchasing Russian oil in April before the waiver extension was announced and secured most of the volumes for May delivery as early as last week, according to the traders. 

Pricing and Insurance Developments

Refineries in India were paying premiums of $7 to $9 per barrel of Russian oil to the dated Brent for cargoes delivered in May, similar to what they paid for April imports.

India has recently expanded the pool of Russian insurers eligible to provide marine cover to ships docking at its ports, increasing the number to 11 from eight, according to its Directorate General of Shipping.

Reporting Credits

(Reporting by Reuters reporters in Moscow, Robert Harvey in London and Nidhi Verma in New Delhi; Editing by Joe Bavier)