Oil Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Conflict as Diesel Hits New Record Highs
Impact of US-Iran Tensions on Global Oil and Diesel Markets
(Corrects paragraph 2 to show Friday's Brent settlement price at$96.28 a barrel, not $92.68)
Oil Price Movements and Market Reactions
HOUSTON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday, ending the week substantially higher after the United States and Iran resumed military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, while retail U.S. diesel prices hit a record high.
Brent crude futures settled at $96.28 a barrel, up 76 cents, or 0.8%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $91.48 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.20%.
For the week, Brent crude rose 7.6% while U.S. crude gained nearly 10% as supply routes in the Middle East remain impaired due to the war.
Inflation and Economic Concerns
The rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world and intensified fears that global economic growth might pull back without some relief.
"All sectors of the economy are affected by diesel. This is one of the reasons why the government bond yields in the United States are so high, it's the expectation that inflation will continue to go up," said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.
Diesel Prices Hit Record Highs
Average U.S. diesel prices hit record highs as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries increased supply disruptions. A gallon of diesel now costs $5.85 on average in the U.S., according to AAA data.
Supply Disruptions and Seasonal Demand
The price of diesel could rise even further due to the sharp drawdown in inventories and as agricultural states in various parts of the country head into harvesting and planting seasons. Diesel is a primary fuel for ag equipment. Its equivalent futures contract, heating oil, has also surged as winter approaches.
Analyst Forecasts and Economic Indicators
Oil Price Forecasts
Citi raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, saying the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was taking longer than previously expected.
ANZ analysts raised their short-term Brent crude forecast to $95 a barrel, with upside risk if the Middle East conflict intensifies.
US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, allaying fears of weakness in the labor market, but bolstering the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates later in September.
"The strong employment figures points to an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and that was weighing on WTI," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
Tanker Flows and Middle East Oil Exports
Current Status of Tanker Flows
Shipping Data and Disruptions
TANKER FLOWS REMAIN IMPAIRED
The U.S. government has said Middle Eastern oil flows have returned to near normal levels in recent weeks, but analysts and tanker trackers indicate that flows remain seriously disrupted.
Four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, well below the 10-day average tally of about 15, preliminary shipping data showed.
Market Sentiment and Risk Premiums
"Oil seems to be in a phase where the conflict’s gridlock and recurring hostilities are regularly awakening a risk premium embedded in prices," said Norbert Rucker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer.
"So far, there is no indication that this week’s escalation materially impacted exports out of the Middle East and tightened the oil market," Rucker said. "Oil’s current rally seems mostly mood and fear driven."
US-Iran Clashes and Regional Oil Exports
U.S. attacks this week that killed and wounded dozens, including Iranian civilians, were the fiercest clashes between the two countries since July.
The U.S. campaign to throttle Iran's economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said.
Iraq increased its August oil exports to about 2.34 million barrels per day from about 1.35 million bpd in July, two Iraqi energy officials said on Wednesday.
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Sudarshan Varadhan and Florence Tan in Singapore, Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey, Kirsten Donovan and David Gaffen)
