Russian rouble at over three-year high against yuan ahead of Putin's visit to China
Rouble Strengthens Against Yuan and Dollar Amid Geopolitical and Economic Factors
By Gleb Bryanski
Recent Currency Movements
MOSCOW, May 19 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble hit its strongest level against China's yuan, Russia's most traded foreign currency, since February 2023 on Tuesday ahead of President Vladimir Putin's visit to China with new business deals on the agenda.
Shift to Local Currencies in Trade
Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said ahead of the visit that "practically all" payments in the $240 billion trade between the two countries were now made in yuan and rouble, which shields them from Western sanctions.
Market Data and Performance
The Moscow Exchange data showed that the rouble strengthened to 10.45 against the yuan. Against the U.S. dollar the rouble crossed to the stronger side of the 72 mark on Tuesday for the first time since March 2023, LSEG data showed.
The rouble was also up 1.4% against the dollar and by 1.6% against the yuan in Tuesday's trading session, with an increase of 12% against the dollar and of 11% against the yuan since April 1, tracking the rise in oil prices and Russia's energy revenues.
Factors Supporting the Rouble
Exchange Rate Mechanisms
The yuan operates under a managed floating exchange rate mechanism, while the rouble is traded under currency controls introduced to counter Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.
Influence of Oil Prices and Sanctions
The rouble was supported by high oil prices as a result of the war in the Middle East, a surprise 30-day extension of the U.S. sanctions waiver for Russian oil on May 18 and by expectations of new business deals between Russia and China.
Analyst Perspectives
"Apart from the factor of increased currency sales by exporters, the rouble could also be supported by news surrounding the planned content of talks between the leaders of Russia and China," Bank Saint Petersburg's analysts said.
"In our view, there is a potential for further strengthening of the rouble due to the increased supply of foreign currency from exporting companies," added PSB Bank's analyst Bogdan Zvarich.
Russia-China Economic Relations
Energy Deals and Trade Expansion
Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to discuss new energy deals, including the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline that would bring gas from the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia to China. China remains the largest buyer of Russian oil.
Russia boosted oil supplies to China by more than a third to 31 million metric tons in the first quarter of this year, Ushakov said on Monday.
Concerns Over Rouble Strength
Many Russian businesses are calling on the government and the central bank to stop the rouble from excessive strengthening, which is eating into exporters' profits and is making them less competitive.
The government resumed purchases of yuan for the fiscal reserve fund in May in a move that should have weakened the rouble but the announced volumes amount to only 1% of the market's turnover, failing to make a significant impact.
(Reporting by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Chiara Rodriquez)
