Allegro raises 2026 outlook as growth accelerates, shares hit five-year high
Allegro's Upgraded Forecasts and Market Performance
By Adrianna Ebert
Third Quarter Growth and Upgraded 2026 Guidance
GDANSK, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Poland's biggest e-commerce platform Allegro raised its 2026 forecasts on Thursday, saying growth continued to accelerate in the third quarter while confirming second-quarter results exceeded guidance, sending its shares up more than 8% to their highest in almost five years.
Allegro now expects 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to grow between 11% and 14% in its domestic market, up from the previously guided 7% to 10%.
Drivers Behind the Share Rally
Analysts said stronger trading and upgraded guidance were the main drivers of the rally. Some also pointed to easing competition from Chinese sellers following changes to low-value import rules and tariffs on imports from outside the European Union.
Expansion and New Service Offerings
The group has been expanding its offering through partnerships while moving beyond traditional e-commerce with new services, such as a cashback offer launched with Poland’s biggest bank PKO BP.
CEO Insights and Market Dynamics
Impact of Tariffs and Consumer Sentiment
Asked about the forecast upgrade, CEO Marcin Kusmierz said Allegro was seeing some benefit from tariffs imposed on Chinese platforms, reflected in weaker interest among Polish and other European consumers in purchasing from those sites. He added that this was only one of several factors supporting growth.
Innovation and Platform Development
"...We are seeing improving consumer sentiment toward online shopping and toward shopping on Allegro. Customers view positively how our offering is expanding, how the platform’s functionality continues to develop, and what we are doing in terms of innovation...as well as services such as travel and healthcare," he said during a media call.
Sales Metrics and Analyst Commentary
Gross Merchandise Value and Guidance
Gross merchandise value, a key sales measure for e-commerce firms, is expected to grow by 11% to 13% in Poland, versus 9% to 11% targeted earlier.
Trigon analysts said in a note that the guidance appeared conservative for the final quarter. "At this stage we see a strong likelihood of exceeding the upper end of its (EBITDA) guidance range in Poland."
Group-Level Growth and International Expansion
Allegro said the first weeks of the third quarter had boosted the group’s year-to-date GMV growth rate to 15%, prompting it to lift group-level guidance to between 13% and 15%.
The number of offers from local partners in the Czech Republic, the largest of Allegro’s foreign markets, rose by almost a third year-on-year in the second quarter, while the first 10 weeks of the third quarter saw the international segment’s GMV growth accelerate to around 100%.
China Office and Compliance Initiatives
The group also recently opened an office in Shenzhen to connect directly with regional sellers and secure platform compliance at source in China.
Logistics and Delivery Partnerships
Negotiations to extend its agreement with parcel locker firm InPost until 2031 are progressing, Allegro said, adding the scope of the new agreement would include lower delivery prices, a revised price indexation formula and multi-year volumes.
(Reporting by Adrianna Ebert, additional reporting by Anna Jaworska-Guidotti; Editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak and Matt Scuffham)