Lebanon Ceasefire Spurs Optimism for Iran Deal and Regional Stability
By Jana Choukeir
Ceasefire Agreement and Its Regional Implications
DUBAI, June 4 (Reuters) - A new U.S.-mediated ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon raised hopes on Thursday for progress toward ending the wider U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though there was still uncertainty about how and when it would be implemented.
Tehran’s Stance and Conditions
Tehran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace deal with Washington, and has suggested in recent days that it could intervene directly in support of its proxy Hezbollah if Israel keeps up or escalates attacks there.
Lebanese and Israeli Responses
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the latest ceasefire would come into force within 24 hours of all concerned parties approving it, appearing to refer to Hezbollah, which is not directly part of the agreement and has not commented on it.
But casting doubt on the robustness of the truce, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday the military would continue to strike in Lebanon for the time being and would not be withdrawing from the south.
The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, said the minimum demand would be for Israel to withdraw to positions held before the start of the war, Iranian state media reported.
Background: Hostilities and Previous Ceasefires
Hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel reignited on March 2, when the group opened fire in support of Tehran as it came under U.S.-Israeli attack. The war has continued despite several ceasefires declared from Washington since April.
Flare-Up in the Gulf and Economic Impact
FLARE-UP IN GULF
The agreement comes after a flare-up in violence across the region. Iranian forces traded attacks in the Gulf on Wednesday in one of the most intense bouts of fighting since a separate ceasefire halted large-scale U.S.-Israeli bombing of Iran in early April.
Iranian forces struck Kuwait, damaging its airport and injuring dozens of people, authorities said, while the U.S. military carried out strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, through which a fifth of the global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally flow, remains largely closed more than three months after the U.S. and Israel launched their strikes on Iran.
Oil prices on Thursday lost some of the previous day's gains on hopes that the Lebanon ceasefire could help Washington and Iran find a diplomatic off-ramp from their war.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who is under pressure to bring down fuel prices, suggested there could be progress in negotiations with Iran as soon as this weekend.
"If it happens, it could happen over the weekend," Trump told reporters in the White House's Oval Office on Wednesday, without elaborating on what he expected to happen within that timeframe.
Trump said that parties were working to separate the issue of reopening the strait from the conflict in Lebanon.
Conflicting Claims Over Kuwait Airport Attack
IRAN DENIES TARGETING KUWAIT AIRPORT
Wednesday's strikes on Kuwait damaged airport facilities and diplomatic missions, killing one person and injuring more than 60 others, Kuwaiti authorities and state media said.
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards said they did not fire at Kuwait's airport and blamed the destruction on U.S. interceptor missiles that failed to hit their targets, according to Iranian state media. The U.S. military said Iranian drones targeted the airport deliberately.
Iranian media reported the Revolutionary Guards also attacked the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and a U.S. airbase. U.S. Central Command denied its bases had been hit and said Iranian ballistic missiles failed to strike their targets in the region.
CENTCOM said it had carried out a new round of "defensive strikes" in southern Iran, targeted missile launch sites and Iranian boats seeking to lay mines, and conducted strikes on Qeshm Island near the strait after attempted Iranian attacks.
Iran’s Conditions for Peace and Future Negotiations
IRAN SETS CONDITIONS FOR PEACE
Last week, Iran and the U.S. signalled progress towards a tentative initial agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait, but the two sides have yet to sign off on the deal, which would leave more complex negotiations for later.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that Iran's enemies had already been defeated on the battlefield and were now seeking to sow internal divisions.
"In order to confront these plans, everyone must be patient, clear-minded, maintain unity, harmony, mutual trust, and not be in agreement with the enemy," he said in a message read on his behalf during ceremonies marking the anniversary of the death of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ruhollah Khomeini.
Khamenei has not been seen in public since he succeeded his father, who was killed in an airstrike at the start of the war.
Iran’s Demands and U.S. Priorities
In addition to Tehran conditioning a deal on an end to fighting in Lebanon, it also wants access to billions of dollars in oil revenue, waivers on sanctions on crude exports, a lifting of a U.S. blockade on its ports and leverage over the strait.
Trump has said his top priority is to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran says its atomic programme is for peaceful purposes.
(Reporting by Reuters bureausWriting by Ros RussellEditing by Peter Graff)
