Sberbank to Reduce 2026 Corporate Lending Forecast as Bad Debts Increase
By Elena Fabrichnaya
Sberbank Faces Challenges Amid Rising Bad Debts and Economic Slowdown
ST PETERSBURG, July 1 (Reuters) - Russia's Sberbank is set to lower its 2026 corporate lending growth forecast because of the worsening financial position of borrowers, its finance chief said on Wednesday.
Performance Overview and Economic Outlook
The country's biggest lender has performed better than expected in some areas, CFO Taras Skvortsov told Reuters on the sidelines of the Bank of Russia's Financial Congress in St Petersburg, but the economy is slowing as the conflict in Ukraine continues and 2026 economic growth is forecast at only 0.4%.
First Half Results and Risk Factors
"It is true that we are performing slightly better than expected in the first half, primarily in terms of interest income, and perhaps even in terms of the cost of risk," Skvortsov said.
"But in the second half of the year, and particularly in recent months, we are seeing rather worrying trends in terms of the quality of the corporate portfolio."
Deterioration in Corporate Portfolio Quality
Skvortsov said there has been a deterioration in clients' financial health, including requests to restructure loans.
"All of this, of course, will force us to set aside provisions for these cases. And, in all likelihood, the cost of risk in the corporate segment will rise," he added.
External Factors Impacting Sberbank's Outlook
Interest Rates and Bad Debt Concerns
Corporate bad debt is rising against a backdrop of high interest rates, Skvortsov said of another factor behind the looming cut to Sberbank's projected corporate lending growth of between 9% and 11% this year. He did not disclose further details on the forecast revision.
The central bank lowered its main interest rate to 14.25% on June 19, a smaller cut than analysts expected.
Fuel Shortages and Inflation Pressures
Nationwide fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries have pushed retail fuel prices higher, meanwhile, and analysts polled by Reuters in June raised their forecasts for inflation this year to 5.7% from 5.5% in May's poll.
A central bank official said this week that the attacks on Russian oil refineries will probably have some impact on economic growth in the second half of the year.
Impact on Companies and Dividend Strategy
"We see the situation on the fuel market. All of this, naturally, impacts the economic position of many companies," Skvortsov said.
He added that the lender would try to keep its dividend payout ratio at 50% of net profit for the next three years but would present the final calculation alongside its strategy at the end of 2026.
(Reporting by Elena FabrichnayaWriting by Lucy PapachristouEditing by Mark Trevelyan and David Goodman)
