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ECB not using neutral rate estimate to decide policy, Lagarde says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on June 22, 2026

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· Last updated: June 22, 2026

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ECB Not Using Neutral Rate Estimate to Decide Policy, Says Lagarde

ECB Policy and the Neutral Interest Rate

Lagarde's Statement on Policy Decision-Making

FRANKFURT, June 22 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's estimate for the neutral interest rate, which neither stimulates nor slows growth, is not used as an explicit goalpost by policymakers when setting interest rates, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday.

ECB's Neutral Rate Estimate and Market Implications

Comments from Chief Economist Philip Lane

ECB chief economist Philip Lane earlier said the neutral rate is somewhere between 1.75% and 2.50%, a touch higher than earlier thought and this has raised some talk among ECB watchers that the ECB could still raise its 2.25% deposit rate one more time without leaving the neutral range.

Market Reactions and Speculation

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

Key Takeaways

  • Lagarde emphasized the neutral rate is not a formal benchmark in monetary decisions, highlighting a flexible, data-driven approach. (streetinsider.com)
  • Philip Lane’s updated estimate places the neutral rate between roughly 1.75% and 2.50%, slightly higher than prior assessments. (abc.az)
  • ECB policymakers continue to focus on incoming economic data and multiple scenarios, avoiding reliance on any single indicator, including the neutral rate. (econostream-media.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the neutral interest rate according to the ECB?
ECB chief economist Philip Lane estimates the neutral rate to be between 1.75% and 2.50%.
Is the ECB using the neutral rate estimate as a policy goal?
No, Christine Lagarde stated the ECB does not use the neutral rate as an explicit goalpost for policy decisions.
Could the ECB still raise its deposit rate?
Yes, some believe the ECB could raise its 2.25% deposit rate one more time without exceeding the neutral range.
Who reported on the ECB's neutral rate and Lagarde's comments?
The article was reported by Balazs Koranyi and edited by Andrew Cawthorne.

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