UK retail sales and consumer morale slide ahead of budget

By Andy Bruce

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) -British retail sales tumbled in October and a closely watched gauge of household sentiment fell this month, adding to signs of waning consumer spending ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget next week.

Retail sales volumes fell by 1.1% in October compared with a month before, their first month-on-month fall since May, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to be flat compared with the previous month. Compared with October a year ago, retail sales were just 0.2% higher, against forecasts for a 1.5% annual increase.

Sterling fell briefly against the dollar but soon recovered.

Earlier on Friday, Britain's longest-running consumer survey, from GfK, showed a broad-based drop in consumer morale this month which suggested the public was "bracing for bad news" in Reeves' budget on November 26.

"The increasingly chaotic run-up to the budget has begun to weigh on consumer spending, judging by confidence nudging down in November and weakening retail sales growth lately," said Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.

Separate ONS data showed higher-than-expected government borrowing last month, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing Reeves.

She is expected to need to raise 20-30 billion pounds ($26 billion-$39 billion) through higher taxes due to an expected growth downgrade from the government's budget watchdog as well as higher borrowing costs and an inability to pass planned welfare cuts through parliament.

Overall consumer spending has been subdued due to a continued high savings rate, which economists say may reflect a surge in inflation in 2022, a more recent weakening in the jobs market and concerns about tax rises in the budget.

Recent updates from major retailers have expressed nervousness about the impact of the upcoming budget on consumer sentiment, particularly for more discretionary purchases. However, supermarket Sainsbury's and food and clothing retailer Marks & Spencer were both upbeat on Christmas trading prospects.

The ONS said supermarket, clothing and mail order sales fell in October, with some retailers citing consumers delaying spending ahead of November's Black Friday discounts.

British retail sales volumes remain 3.3% lower than their pre-pandemic level of February 2020.

(Additional reporting by James Davey; editing by William Schomberg)