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BoE's Bailey says outlook too uncertain to judge market bets on four rate hikes - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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BoE's Bailey says outlook too uncertain to judge market bets on four rate hikes

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on September 17, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: September 17, 2026

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BoE's Bailey: Rate Hike Outlook Too Uncertain to Confirm Market Expectations

Bank of England Governor Comments on Interest Rate Hike Prospects

Bailey Addresses Market Expectations

LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday the outlook was too unpredictable when asked whether markets were right to price in almost four interest rate hikes over the next year, adding that his officials had not discussed that.

"We had a lot of discussion this time, and we did not discuss the prospect of raising interest rates four times," Bailey told broadcasters after the BoE left interest rates on hold but warned of mounting inflation pressure.

"Markets have to reach a view, but I would say this: I'm afraid the situation ... is too unpredictable at the moment," he added.

Previous Comments on Rate Hikes

Bailey has sometimes been willing to comment on market rate expectations, for instance telling Reuters in April that markets were "getting ahead of themselves" by pricing in multiple rate hikes and in July stressing that a rate hike later in the year was far from certain.

BoE's New Plans for Government Bond Holdings

Changes to Gilt Sales

Earlier on Thursday the BoE outlined new plans to wind down its holdings of British government bonds, halting sales of long-dated gilts entirely and pausing active sales for the next six months.

Market Conditions and BoE's Decision

Bailey said conditions in the gilt market — where yields for 30-year bonds this week hit their highest level since 1998 — had not factored into its announcement.

"We were planning this work well before the conflict broke out in the Middle East, so it's not a reaction to market conditions at all," Bailey said.

Reporting Credits

(Reporting by Andy Bruce; editing by David Milliken)

Key Takeaways

  • Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that the current environment is too uncertain to endorse market bets on four rate hikes over the next year; such plans were not discussed within the BoE committee. (marketscreener.com)
  • Long‑dated gilt yields — such as the 30‑year — have surged to their highest levels since 1998, reflecting mounting inflation pressures and geopolitical strain, but BoE’s pause in gilt sales was part of a pre‑planned wind‑down strategy, not a reaction to recent market turmoil. (lse.co.uk)
  • The uncertain outlook underscores how volatile energy markets and global tensions—particularly in the Middle East—are increasingly influencing UK inflation expectations and complicating monetary policy decisions. (marketscreener.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Bank of England discuss four interest rate hikes?
No, Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the BoE did not discuss the prospect of raising interest rates four times.
What did Bailey say about the outlook for interest rates?
Bailey said the situation is too unpredictable to judge whether market pricing for four hikes is correct.
Is the BoE's decision influenced by current gilt market conditions?
Bailey explained the BoE's plans to wind down gilt holdings were not a reaction to recent market conditions.
Why did the BoE pause active sales of long-dated gilts?
The BoE paused sales for the next six months as part of their planned strategy, unrelated to market volatility.
Did the Middle East conflict influence the BoE's bond plans?
No, Bailey said the work was planned well before the conflict began and is unrelated to those events.

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