NATO Allies Struggle to Boost Arctic Defence as Russia Increases Presence
Challenges and Strategic Shifts in Arctic Defence
By Gwladys Fouche, Stine Jacobsen, Lili Bayer and Sabine Siebold
Simulated NATO Reconnaissance Missions in the Arctic
EVENES, Norway, June 26 (Reuters) - During a frozen morning in Arctic Norway, a group of British and Norwegian soldiers padded softly through a snow-blanketed birch forest.
They were on a simulated NATO reconnaissance mission, among some 30,000 troops who took part in a drill rehearsing a counter-attack against an invading “enemy to the east,” a euphemism for Russia, Norway's Arctic neighbour.
Russia's Growing Arctic Military Presence
Russia has raced far ahead in Arctic defence over the past decade, modernising the world’s largest ice-breaking fleet as climate change creates new routes; and reopening dozens of Soviet-era bases in a region that provides the shortest path to the United States for its nuclear intercontinental missiles.
NATO's Arctic Sentry Initiative
The exercises in March were part of a stepped-up effort called Arctic Sentry that aims to show Washington that Europe and Canada can defend the alliance’s northern flank. Secretary General Mark Rutte announced Arctic Sentry in February as he lobbied U.S. President Donald Trump to drop a push to acquire Greenland.
Rutte was successful with Trump, but significantly strengthening the alliance’s Arctic posture is more challenging, interviews with dozens of current and former NATO officials and Arctic experts show.
Long-term Investments and Resource Challenges
It requires long-term investments in a wide range of assets – including ice-breakers, submarines, drones and satellites – testing allies’ economic and military resources at a time when Trump has threatened to leave NATO altogether and Washington is withdrawing troops, planes, ships and weapons from Europe.
Through most of NATO’s eight-decade history, the inhospitable High North was low priority. But melting ice, Russia’s growing strength in a mineral-rich region larger than the United States and increased interest from China have changed that calculus.
“No major power in the 21st century will be able to maintain its position on the global scene without, in one way or another, having a strong presence in the Arctic,” Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, an ex-Icelandic president who chairs the Arctic Circle forum, the 'Davos of the Arctic,' told Reuters.
US Contributions and NATO Coordination
Reuters could not establish whether the United States was contributing more or less to collective Arctic defence under Arctic Sentry, which is led by Joint Force Command Norfolk, Virginia, established in 2019 with an eye on Russia’s advances in the north. In response to questions from the news agency, a NATO official said the United States remains a key contributor to NATO’s Arctic defence, noting the commitment was reaffirmed in a joint statement between the Arctic allies in June.
The Pentagon and White House did not respond to Reuters questions for this story, including whether U.S. forces involved in the Arctic defence will be impacted by a U.S. review of troops in Europe. Along with lingering worries about Trump’s ambitions in Greenland, the security review is expected to cast a shadow over a NATO summit in Ankara in July.
The White House has previously said Trump has prompted allies “to recognize the need to meaningfully contribute to their own defense,” calling the Arctic critical for U.S. national security and the economy.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence did not respond to a request for comment for this story. The Kremlin has in the past said the United States is stoking tensions in the Arctic.
Kola Peninsula: The Heart of Russia's Arctic Nuclear Arsenal
KOLA PENINSULA NUCLEAR ARSENAL
A key challenge for European NATO allies is monitoring activity on Arctic Russia’s Kola Peninsula, neighbouring Finland and Norway. The peninsula accounts for around two-thirds of Russia's second-strike nuclear capabilities, including the Russian navy’s Northern Fleet, which operates six of Russia’s 12 nuclear-armed submarines.
Strategic Threats and Monitoring Gaps
From the peninsula, Russia could launch hypersonic missiles towards the United States, making early warning systems vital, or send the submarines towards the U.S. East Coast via the Bear Gap in the Barents Sea and the GIUK Gap between Greenland, Iceland and Britain.
Norway and NATO allies currently monitor the fleet in the GIUK Gap and the Barents Sea, where critical undersea cables have suffered damage in incidents some attribute to Russia. The Norwegians spy on Kola Peninsula installations and share the intelligence with the Americans.
Need for Enhanced Intelligence and Surveillance
But NATO must further improve its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capacities, said Mauro Gilli, a professor of military strategy at the Berlin-based Hertie School.
Such abilities do not come cheap in Arctic conditions where standard equipment often fails. Northern Norway can, for instance, see temperatures drop to -45°Celsius (-49°Fahrenheit) in winter ex-wind chill factor.
Naval Presence and Technological Investments
The Arctic is mostly ocean across Greenland, Iceland, northern Norway and the Barents Sea, so any security presence must be primarily naval, which is costly, said Grimsson. The United States has only two operational icebreakers. Russia, with by far the biggest Arctic territory, has 42, some nuclear-powered.
Satellite communications that work at high latitudes are crucial to allow real-time detection, Gilli told Reuters, along with long-endurance drones that work in extreme cold, expanded underwater surveillance, and different types of ground-based radars. He estimated investments could run into hundreds of billions of dollars.
Climate Change and Submarine Detection Challenges
Climate change is making submarine tracking harder, calling for investment in new generations of submarine sensors that can counter changing salinity levels and currents from warming oceans, such as the North Atlantic, which is warming rapidly, according to NATO Defence College research from 2025.
The changes affect how sound travels through water, shrinking the range at which submarines can be detected, the research found.
At the moment "we can listen to and track submarines in the Bare
