UK long-run inflation expectations near 15-month high in September, Citi/YouGov survey shows

UK Long-Run Inflation Expectations Hit 15-Month High, Citi/YouGov Survey Finds

Survey Results and Implications for the Bank of England

Rising Inflation Expectations

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Long-term public inflation expectations in Britain came close to their highest level in more than a year in September, adding to pressure on the Bank of England as it considers whether to raise interest rates, a survey from U.S. bank Citi and pollsters YouGov showed on Monday.

Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 4.5% in September from 3.9% in August while expectations for price growth in the longer term rose to 4.3% from 4.1% – the highest since June 2025, excluding March. 

Comparison to Previous Highs

"This leaves the series only 15 basis points from its peak in March and, excluding the March print, the highest the series has been since June 2025," Citi said.

Bank of England's Response

Monitoring Inflation Drivers

The BoE is watching closely for signs that the jump in energy prices caused by the Iran war could turn into longer-lasting inflation pressures.

Survey Divergence and Market Impact

Differences Between Household and Business Surveys

Citi noted a divergence between its poll of just over 2,000 British households and other inflation expectations surveys like the BoE's Decision Maker Panel of businesses.

Year-Ahead Expectations Spread

"Looking at the year-ahead series, the spread between Citi/YouGov and DMP was, as of August, 86 bps – well above the historical average of 16 bps," Citi said.

August's difference in expectations was close to a record and the difference was likely to be even wider after the BoE published its next data, the bank added.

Weight of Business vs. Household Views

Citi said it was unclear if the BoE would place more weight on the views of businesses which set prices or on household views which can influence pay demands but are sensitive to short-term rises in energy and food prices.

"On balance we think the latter remains more likely as a hedge against future inflation, even as the evidence for widespread price pressure at this point in time remains more limited," Citi said.

(Reporting by William James and Suban Abdulla; editing by David Milliken)