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UK business morale slumps as Iran war pushes up costs, survey shows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 2, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: July 2, 2026

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UK Business Confidence Plunges as Iran Conflict Drives Up Costs

British Business Confidence Hits New Lows Amid Rising Costs

LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) - British business confidence fell to its lowest since 2022 as the Iran war, which pushed up costs, saps expectations for future sales, a survey of accountants showed on Thursday.

Survey Findings from ICAEW

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales said that ​its quarterly Business Confidence Monitor fell to its lowest since the fourth quarter of 2022 in the three months to June.

Economic Outlook

"Even if the peace deal holds, the weakening in forward-looking sales indicators points to a difficult second half of the year for the UK economy, as the aftereffects of the Iran conflict continue to weigh on activity," Suren ‌Thiru, ⁠chief economist at the ICAEW, said.

Key Points from the Survey

Confidence and Cost Pressures

Below are other key points from the survey:

• Fall in confidence was the joint-longest negative streak since the global financial crisis

• Drop reflects weaker expected sales activity and rising costs pressures

• Input prices rose to 4.1% in the three months to June, the highest since the July-to-September period 2024

• Companies said they were struggling to fully pass higher costs on to customers due to weak demand

Concerns for the Year Ahead

• Expectations for input cost growth over the coming 12 months rose to the highest level since Q1 2023

• More than half of the firms surveyed were worried ​about labour costs ​and ⁠35% of firms cited concerns about energy prices

• The share of businesses citing transport worries was the highest in over two years

• 24% of firms said they were concerned about late payments, the highest proportion in five years

Survey Methodology

• 1,000 accountants took part in ICAEW's ​survey between April 13 and June 19

(Reporting by Suban Abdulla; Editing by Muvija M)

Key Takeaways

  • BCM index slumped to –14.6 in Q2 2026, down from –1.1 in Q1, amid Iran war–driven geopolitical risk and rising energy costs—the joint‑longest negative run since the 2008 crisis (icaew.com)
  • Input price inflation rose to 4.1%—highest since Q3 2024—and forecasts for future cost growth also surged, squeezing margins (icaew.com)
  • Over 65% of firms cited geopolitical risk; 55% flagged energy costs; 58% cited labour costs; and 24% raised concerns about late payments—the highest in five years (icaew.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the recent drop in UK business confidence?
The drop in UK business confidence was mainly caused by the Iran war, which pushed up costs and weakened expectations for future sales.
How much have input prices risen for UK businesses?
Input prices rose to 4.1% in the three months to June, the highest since the July-to-September period in 2024.
What concerns do UK businesses have about future costs?
Businesses are worried about labour costs, energy prices, and expect further input cost growth in the next 12 months.
How many accountants participated in the ICAEW survey?
1,000 accountants took part in the ICAEW survey between April 13 and June 19.
What proportion of firms are concerned about late payments?
24% of firms said they were concerned about late payments, the highest proportion in five years.

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