Trump’s Critical Minerals Pricing Plan Divides G7 and Mining Industry Leaders
By Julia Payne and Ernest Scheyder
G7 and Industry Reactions to the U.S. Critical Minerals Pricing Proposal
ÉVIAN-LES-BAINS, France, June 15 (Reuters) - The Trump administration's push to boost critical minerals production by regulating prices is facing skeptical G7 allies and a divided mining industry, with negotiations for a Western trading bloc stumbling over concerns about the plan's cost and governance, according to diplomatic sources and a Reuters analysis of corporate policy recommendations.
Background: The Proposed Western Trading Bloc
First proposed by U.S. Vice President JD Vance in February, the trading bloc aims to help the West wean itself off China, which became the world's largest minerals producer by operating at a loss and dampening prices for the building blocks of semiconductors, computer servers, military equipment and myriad other products.
Artificially low prices for cobalt, lithium, nickel and other minerals have made it harder for Western mining rivals to compete, inhibiting new development and driving some companies out of business — a tactic Beijing has used repeatedly in other industries.
Mechanisms Under Consideration
The trade bloc, as envisioned, would explore price supports, market standards, subsidies, or guaranteed purchases to encourage and financially underpin production across multiple countries. The measures could be enforced by "adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity," Vance said at the time.
At present, many niche minerals critical to tech and defense are traded over-the-counter with minimal transparency and linked to Chinese prices, which de facto set the global market due to China's dominant production.
G7 Pushback and Industry Division
Since Vance's announcement, G7 members have pushed back against U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in private negotiations and cooled on the idea of the bloc relying on a price scheme derived from a Pentagon AI model, three sources told Reuters.
Concerns from Allies and Industry
Key concerns center around who would pay a premium for minerals, how far down the supply chain those subsidies should go and how governance would work, according to European officials.
The U.S. mining industry is divided on what steps Greer should push allies to support, a disagreement that is clear from more than 230 public submissions sent to Greer's office by a range of miners, refiners and their customers reviewed by Reuters.
Allied and corporate concerns underscore the complexity of reinventing the way minerals are bought and sold. Yet how and whether the trade bloc ultimately shapes out could influence minerals markets for years to come, more than a dozen analysts and consultants told Reuters.
Expert Perspective
"It is a very hard thing to do, and I'm happy I'm not the one doing it," said Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, a minerals investor who ran the U.S. Department of Energy's batteries and critical minerals portfolio under former President Joe Biden.
Upcoming G7 Meetings and Negotiation Dynamics
The topic will be a key talking point as G7 members meet this week in France. Western countries face the difficult task of building up a supply chain from mine to end product all at once to diversify away from China.
The draft U.S. proposal, crafted using an AI pricing program created by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), has been delivered to the White House and the National Security Council and U.S. representatives are expected to brief G7 allies on its contents in the upcoming meeting, according to a U.S. official.
European and industry officials said they want to study the impact of price supports on the medium and long-term rather than commit to quick deals — at odds with the faster-paced Americans.
Debate Over Governance Structures
The Trump administration, meanwhile, is reluctant to embrace the idea pushed by France of a permanent administrative secretariat within the International Energy Agency (IEA) or OECD to track G7 initiatives on critical minerals as presidencies rotate, the sources added.
Adding to complications, Canada and France — which holds the G7 presidency — want to develop a trading bloc led by the G7 whereas the United States wants to avoid multilateral negotiations and forge fast concrete bilateral deals, and later expand them, three sources familiar with the matter said.
The push for a bilateral approach from Washington appears to indicate a shift in strategy from the plan first outlined by Vance earlier this year.
Statements from U.S. Officials
"What we're trying to do is take some of these approaches and turn them into an agreement," Greer told reporters in early June at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) ministerial meeting in Paris.
The United States, Greer said, would use price supports "to protect production of critical minerals and derivative products. ... We want to phase it in. ... If other countries want to join us in that, they're welcome to do that."
Washington aims to present a proposal for binding bilateral agreements to Japan and the European Union before the end of June, two sources familiar with the matter said. The proposal would be the first concrete step built on action plans announced earlier this year, one with Japan and the other with the EU.
The first binding agreement could extend to five to 10 minerals, the sources said. The minerals under consideration include heavy rare earths, antimony, graphite and tungsten, all subject to Chinese export bans or restrictions.
Price Setting and the Role of AI
PRICE SETTING
The OPEN AI Metals Program
The Trump administration aims to set prices using the U.S. Department of Defense's Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN) AI metals program, which was created by DARPA and aims to calculate what a metal should be priced at when labor, processing and other costs are factored in, while alleged Chinese market manipulation is factored out.
European Concerns Over U.S. AI Pricing System
But European allies so far are opposed to the idea of using an AI pricing system developed by Washington, one source said, citing concerns about the U.S. having too much sway over the bloc's pricing.
Another person added
