Oil Tankers Exit Strait of Hormuz as Trump, Vance Highlight Iran Deal Progress
Developments in the U.S.-Iran Conflict and Oil Markets
By Florence Tan and Humeyra Pamuk
SINGAPORE/WASHINGTON, May 20 (Reuters) - Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be resolved after positive comments from the U.S. president and his deputy.
U.S. Leadership Comments on Conflict Resolution
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over "very quickly" while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.
"We're in a pretty good spot here," Vance told a White House press briefing.
Trump made his comments a day after saying he had paused a planned resumption of hostilities following a new proposal by Tehran to end the conflict.
"I was an hour away from making the decision to go today," Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday.
Iran's leaders are begging for a deal, he said, adding that a new U.S. attack would happen in coming days if no agreement was reached.
Political and Economic Pressures
The United States has been struggling to end the war it began with Israel nearly three months ago. Trump has repeatedly said during the conflict that a deal with Tehran was close, and similarly threatened heavy strikes on Iran if it did not reach an accord.
The U.S. president is under intense political pressure at home to reach an accord that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz - a key route for global supplies of oil and other commodities. Gasoline prices remain high and Trump's approval rating has plummeted with congressional elections looming in November.
Impact on Global Oil Markets
The conflict has caused the worst-ever disruption to global energy supplies, blocking hundreds of tankers from leaving the Gulf while damaging energy and shipping facilities across the region.
Two Chinese ships, among a handful of supertankers carrying Iraqi crude, exiting the Gulf this month, passed through the narrow strait carrying around 4 million barrels of crude, according to data from LSEG and Kpler.
Oil prices eased on the positive signals from the White House and in the Gulf, with Brent crude falling to as low as $110.16 a barrel, before regaining much of its losses.
Market Sentiment
"Investors are keen to gauge whether Washington and Tehran can actually find common ground and reach a peace agreement, with the U.S. stance shifting daily," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
Challenges in Negotiations
Complexities with Iranian Leadership
DIFFICULTIES IN NEGOTIATIONS
Speaking to reporters at a White House briefing, Vance acknowledged difficulties in negotiating with a fractured Iranian leadership. "It's not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is," he said, so the U.S. is trying to make its own red lines clear.
He also said one objective of Trump's policy is to prevent a nuclear arms race from spreading in the region.
Iranian Response and Proposals
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, said on X that Trump's pausing of an attack was due to the realization that any move against Iran would mean "facing a decisive military response."
Iranian state media said Tehran's latest peace proposal involves ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, the exit of U.S. forces from areas close to Iran, and reparations for destruction caused by the U.S.-Israeli attacks.
Tehran also sought the lifting of sanctions, release of frozen funds and an end to the U.S. marine blockade, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi as cited by IRNA news agency.
The terms as described in the Iranian reports appeared little changed from Iran's previous offer, which Trump rejected last week as "garbage."
Ceasefire Status and Regional Impact
Current State of the Ceasefire
CEASEFIRE MOSTLY HOLDING
The U.S.-Israeli bombing killed thousands of people in Iran before it was suspended in a ceasefire in early April. Israel has killed thousands more and driven hundreds of thousands from their homes in Lebanon, which it invaded in pursuit of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.
Iranian strikes on Israel and neighbouring Gulf states have killed dozens of people.
The Iran ceasefire has mostly held, although drones have lately been launched from Iraq towards Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, apparently by Iran and its allies.
Objectives and Outcomes of the Conflict
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they launched the war to curb Iran's support for regional militias, dismantle its nuclear program, destroy its missile capabilities and create conditions for Iranians to topple their rulers.
But the war has yet to deprive Iran of its stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium or its ability to threaten neighbours with missiles, drones and proxy militias.
The Islamic Republic's clerical leadership, which had faced a mass uprising at the start of the year, withstood the superpower onslaught with no sign of organised opposition.
(Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Lincoln Feast; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
