Sterling Falls as Traders Await Bank of England's Bailey on Policy Outlook
Market Reactions and Policy Expectations
Sterling Performance and Investor Sentiment
Sept 8 (Reuters) - The pound dipped against the dollar on Tuesday, as investors waited to hear from several Bank of England policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, for insights on inflation and monetary policy outlook.
The British currency traded at $1.3529, down 0.12% against the dollar on the day.
Upcoming Bank of England Testimonies
The BoE's Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and monetary policy committee members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor will address lawmakers on the Treasury Select Committee at 1315 GMT.
Interest Rate Outlook
Traders largely expect the central bank to hold interest rates at 3.75% next week. Still, they will be closely watching policymakers' views, given the recent surge in oil prices to nearly $100 a barrel and a surprise vote by a rate-setting member in July in favour of hiking interest rates.
Analyst Expectations
"We expect a 6-3 vote (in favour of holding interest rates) as our baseline, with Greene, Mann and Pill dissenting. However, we see the risks as skewed towards more dissenters, with a small possibility they are joined by either Lombardelli or Ramsden," Barclays economists said in a note.
Recent Central Bank Decisions
The British central bank kept interest rates on hold in July as it waited for a keener sense of how much the U.S.-Iran war would drive up inflation, though the lack of progress towards a Middle East peace deal prompted Catherine Mann to join the hawks camp.
Broader Economic and Market Context
Market Pricing and Retail Trends
Money market futures imply traders are fully pricing in one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026 despite signs of a slowing labour market.
British retail sales growth slowed to a four-month low in August as a surge driven by record-hot weather earlier in the summer faded, figures from the British Retail Consortium trade body showed on Tuesday.
Sterling Against Other Currencies
Sterling was little changed at 85.83 pence per euro but slumped further against the Japanese yen, falling 0.2% to a near seven-month low of 208.46 yen as the Japanese currency climbed on expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan outcome next week.
Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices
Geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on global investors, as oil prices hit multi-week highs after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and Tehran threatened the United States with "economic warfare". Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to $98.70 a barrel. [O/R]
(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Diti Pujara)
