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Sterling advances ahead of economic data that could test rally - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Sterling advances ahead of economic data that could test rally

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on August 17, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: August 17, 2026

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Sterling Strengthens as UK Economic Data and Rate Outlook Loom

Market Movements and Economic Indicators

By Niket Nishant

Sterling's Recent Performance

Aug 17 (Reuters) - The pound rose on Monday as investors awaited a batch of inflation and labour market data that could put the currency's recent gains to the test.

Sterling rose 0.21% against a weaker dollar to $1.3560 after three consecutive weekly gains. It was also trading 0.06% higher at 85.50 pence per euro.

Upcoming Data and Bank of England Outlook

The inflation and labour market readings due later this week will be crucial to the Bank of England's interest rate outlook and could determine whether sterling can extend its recovery after a period of political turmoil in the UK. 

Economic Growth Factors

The currency was boosted by data last week that showed the British economy had grown unexpectedly in June thanks to the start of the men's soccer World Cup, hot weather and respite from the energy price surge.

Labour Market Sentiment

However, a survey published on Monday showed that employers remain reluctant to hire and confidence has held near its weakest ​levels outside the COVID-19 pandemic.

External Influences on the Pound

Oil Prices and Global Tensions

"Policymakers are likely to focus on the broader trend rather than any single data point," said Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

The relief from lower crude oil prices in June could also be temporary, given the latest flare-up in Middle East tensions. Iran called on the U.S. to ​accept defeat while President Donald Trump told Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices.

Household Impact

"All the focus is back on oil prices. Households could yet interpret sticky energy prices as more permanent," Pantheon Macroeconomics economists wrote.

Interest Rate Expectations

Traders are pricing in at least one increase to interest rates by the Bank of England this year, according to data compiled by LSEG. 

Central Bank Commentary

The central bank's chief economist, Huw Pill, told the ​Wall Street Journal last week ‌that stronger than expected economic growth reinforced the case for higher borrowing ​costs.

(Reporting by Niket Nishant in BengaluruEditing by David Goodman)

Key Takeaways

  • Sterling strengthened modestly as markets await key UK inflation and labour data that may influence BoE policy.
  • Recent economic resilience—unexpected June GDP growth helped by World Cup demand and milder energy pressure—has supported sterling.
  • Labour market surveys point to hiring caution and subdued confidence, while oil price tensions and energy cost risks linger, testing the sustainability of the rally.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did sterling rise against the dollar and euro?
Sterling rose against both the dollar and euro due to investor anticipation of upcoming UK inflation and labour market data and a weaker dollar.
What economic reports are key for the Bank of England's outlook?
Upcoming inflation and labour market data are crucial for the Bank of England's interest rate decision.
How did recent UK economic data impact sterling?
Recent data showing unexpected UK economic growth boosted sterling's value.
What risks could threaten the pound's rally?
High energy prices and renewed Middle East tensions may pose risks to sterling's strength.
Are traders expecting an interest rate hike in the UK this year?
Yes, traders are pricing in at least one Bank of England interest rate increase this year.

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