Spanish conservative parties keep solid lead ahead of Nov election, polls show

Spanish Polls: Conservative Parties Hold Solid Lead Ahead of November Election

Conservative Bloc Poised for Majority in Upcoming Spanish Election

MADRID, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Spain's centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox were on track to win a combined parliamentary majority in a snap general election called by the ruling Socialists for November 29, according to two opinion polls published on Friday.

Background: Early Election Triggered by Housing Crisis

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has been in power since 2018, called the early election this week after parliament rejected his government's proposals to address a mounting housing crisis.

He is gambling that protests over home shortages and surging rents following the eviction of an 87-year-old woman could galvanize leftist voters and shift the narrative from a migrant crisis this summer and investigations into alleged corruption in his party and influence peddling by his wife and brother.

Sanchez has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing by his party and defended his family's innocence.

Poll Results: Conservative Surge and Leftist Decline

El País Survey

A survey by El País newspaper showed the People's Party (PP) and anti-immigration party Vox combined would clinch 198 seats, above the 176-seat threshold needed to form a parliamentary majority. In the last election in 2023, both parties totalled 170 seats and now Vox would double its support.

The Socialists would fall to 112 seats from 121 three years ago and their options to govern would be severely impacted by the falling support for their far-left government coalition partner Sumar, the survey shows.

Implications for Spain and Europe

An electoral defeat would spell the end of one of Europe's last remaining left-leaning governments at a time when the far right is rallying supporters across the region.

Vote Shares and Alternative Polls

Vote Percentages

In terms of overall votes, the PP would win the election with 31.9% of support, ahead of the Socialists with 28.1%, according to the El País poll. Although both parties lose votes compared with 2023, the Socialists' fall is sharper.

El Confidencial Survey

Historic Far-Right Entry into Government

Showing a similar outcome, a survey by El Confidencial website gives 200 parliamentary seats to the PP and Vox, which would usher a far-right party into central government for the first time since Spain's return to democracy following the 1975 death of authoritarian leader Francisco Franco.

(Reporting by Joan Faus and Philippa Fletcher)