Russia's Sechin says US companies benefit from Strait of Hormuz closure
Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure on Global Energy Markets
By Vladimir Soldatkin and Olesya Astakhova
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, June 6 (Reuters) - Rosneft Chief Executive Igor Sechin said on Saturday that U.S. energy companies were the main beneficiaries of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but warned that continued tensions in the artery for one fifth of the world's crude would undermine long-term demand for oil.
Background: The Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Iran blockaded the Strait, the main route for about a fifth of world oil supplies and other vital goods including fertilisers, after the United States and Israel attacked Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports.
Sechin's Analysis of US Actions and Global Energy Markets
Sechin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and one of the most influential men in Russia's energy sector, cast the U.S. actions as an attempt to change the fundamental contours of the global energy markets to suit U.S. interests, but added that the strategic risks had not been fully assessed.
Strategic Risks and Market Implications
"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an attempt to reshape global energy market regulations to benefit the United States. The measures taken to block the strait were aimed at Iran, but backfired on the entire world. The strategic risks were underestimated," Sechin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
"The main beneficiaries, of course, were American companies, which gained non-competitive advantages and the ability to secure high-cost supplies," he said. "Continued tension in the Strait of Hormuz for a long time undermines the long-term demand for oil. It may also trigger another surge of interest in alternative energy."
Global Oil Production and Revenue Trends
The U.S. is the world's biggest oil producer, followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Russia's oil and gas tax revenue, which accounts for around a fifth of total budget income, increased by 32.4% year-on-year in May to 678.9 billion roubles ($9.3 billion), Finance Ministry data showed, thanks to a global oil price rally fuelled by the Middle East war. The U.S. has also extended a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid "energy-vulnerable" countries hit by the Iran war.
Preparedness and Future Risks
China's Response and Other Vulnerable Routes
Sechin said that China had been best prepared for the crisis due to well-thought-out state policy, but cautioned that other major global routes, such as Malacca, Bab El Mandeb and Gibraltar straits could also be under the risk of disruption.
Oil Price Projections
If the Strait opens in the near future, then the oil price will be at $95 to $96 per barrel by the end of the year, and in a year it will drop to $80 to $85, and by the second half of 2027 there will be a return to market fundamentals, he said.
Global Instability and Resource Shortages
Speech Highlights: "A Dangerous World"
A DANGEROUS WORLD
In a speech entitled "The beginning of the end or the end of the beginning: what is left at the bottom of Pandora's box?", Sechin said problems were "snowballing" in the world with the militarisation of major powers, the biggest financial market bubble since the 19th century and a looming deficit of electricity, food and water.
Resource Shortages and Economic Risks
"At the bottom of the box, we will inevitably find a global shortage of electricity, food shortages, copper and other metals, and water shortages," Sechin said.
OPEC+ Alliance and Production Trends
OPEC+ Membership Changes and Output Declines
Sechin, who is known for his skepticism about Russia's cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the OPEC+ group has lost some of its potential following the United Arab Emirates' departure from the alliance, as well as the earlier exits of Qatar and other countries.
"As a result, the alliance's production has fallen from 58 to 37 million barrels per day over the past 10 years," he said.
Production Changes and Investment Needs
Sechin also said that most major OPEC+ members have increased production since the agreement was signed in 2016. In Russia, oil production fell by 1.5 million barrels per day.
"This is a 15% decline that will need to be offset by necessary investments of at least 10 trillion rubles. We expect that investment cooperation between the alliance's member countries and our country will also expand," Sechin said.
(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Olesya Astakhova; editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Kirsten Donovan)
