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Morgan Stanley changes BoE rate call, sees hikes in Nov and Feb - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Morgan Stanley changes BoE rate call, sees hikes in Nov and Feb

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on September 25, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: September 25, 2026

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Morgan Stanley Revises BoE Rate Call, Predicts Hikes in November and February

Morgan Stanley's Updated Interest Rate Forecast

Change in Rate Expectations

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley changed its Bank of England interest rate call on Friday, predicting Britain's central bank will now deliver two 25 basis point hikes in November and February, having previously expected no hikes for the foreseeable future.

Key Catalysts for Rate Hikes

"We formally change our BoE call to two quarterly hikes, with fiscal policy, we think, the key potential catalyst for more tightening," Morgan Stanley's analysts said in a research note.

Growth and Inflation Outlook

"We expect a slowdown in growth at the turn of the year but, given the robustness of global growth, see balanced near-term risks."

The BoE kept rates on hold last week but warned they might have to go up if the Iran war drags on, while predicting British inflation will top 4% early next year.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)

Key Takeaways

  • Morgan Stanley changed its outlook to anticipate two BoE rate hikes: one in November 2026 and another in February 2027, reversing its prior stance of no hikes for the foreseeable future.
  • The update reflects concerns over inflation pressures—especially energy‑related and geopolitical risks—and highlights fiscal policy as a potential catalyst for further tightening.
  • BoE recently held rates at 3.75%, noting inflation could exceed 4% early next year if Iran conflict persists—a dynamic underpinning Morgan Stanley’s more hawkish stance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What rate changes does Morgan Stanley predict for the Bank of England?
Morgan Stanley forecasts two 25 basis point rate hikes by the Bank of England, one in November and another in February.
What is the key catalyst for further Bank of England tightening?
Morgan Stanley identifies fiscal policy as the key potential catalyst for further Bank of England tightening.
What growth outlook does Morgan Stanley expect for the UK?
Morgan Stanley expects a slowdown in UK growth at the turn of the year but sees balanced near-term risks due to robust global growth.
Why did the Bank of England keep rates on hold last week?
The Bank of England kept rates on hold but warned they may need to rise if the Iran war persists.

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