German investor morale rebounds on hopes Iran conflict will end
German Investor Sentiment and Economic Outlook
By Maria Martinez
Unexpected Rise in Investor Morale
BERLIN, June 16(Reuters) - German investor morale rose unexpectedly in June as financial market experts bet on an easing of the Iran conflict and associated inflation pressures.
The indicator of economic sentiment rose to plus 10.5 points, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated it would rise, but only to minus 6 from minus 10.2 the previous month.
Expert Commentary on the Iran Conflict
"Experts are betting that the Iran conflict is nearing an end," said ZEW President Achim Wambach, adding that the massive pressure it had placed on energy prices and wider inflation was likely to ease.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank, said: "It should not be overlooked that the overall picture painted by the economic barometer remains sharply clouded compared with levels at the start of the year ... There can certainly be no talk of economic euphoria among survey participants."
The survey was conducted between June 8 and 15.
Global Events Impacting Investor Sentiment
SpaceX, Iran Conflict, and the World Cup
SPACEX, IRAN AND WORLD CUP ALL REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the U.S. and Iran.
Market Optimism and Economic Barometers
Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "SpaceX is a $3T company, the U.S.-Iran war is over, equity markets are edging toward new highs, and the World Cup is under way. Why wouldn't investors be over the moon?"
Current Economic Situation and Forecasts
By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation declined slightly, falling to minus 81.0 points from minus 77.8 the previous month.
The RWI economic institute cut its forecasts for the German economy on Tuesday due to rising oil, fuel and transport costs increasingly feeding through to broader parts of the economy.
Challenges Ahead for the German Economy
Felicitas Henze, economist at Deutsche Bank Research, said: "Even if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East develops positively as expected, it will still take some time for the headwinds facing the German economy to subside."
(Additional reporting by Friederike Heine; editing by Linda Pasquini, Madeline Chambers and Kevin Liffey)
