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Chinese and US risks mean EU chip sector faces a 'bleak future,' report says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 2, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: July 2, 2026

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EU Chip Sector Threatened by US, China Risks and Industry Weaknesses – Report

By Toby Sterling

Main Findings of the EU-Funded Report

Key Threats to the European Chip Sector

Chinese Export Controls and Geopolitical Risks

AMSTERDAM, July 2 (Reuters) - Chinese export controls, dependence on the U.S. for technology and the structural weakness of Europe's domestic chip industry mean it faces a "bleak future," an EU-funded report found on Thursday.

The independent report by the European Union's Institute for Security Studies and French think-tank Institut Montaigne concluded that Chinese export controls on critical minerals and magnets or the risk of a war in the Taiwan Strait were major threats to supply.

Dependence on U.S. Technology

Further vulnerability stems from the EU's dependence on the U.S. for technology, including design software and the possibility the U.S. could block exports to China by chip-making equipment supplier ASML, Europe's most valuable company.

The U.S. Congress is debating a proposed law that would give Washington the power to unilaterally impose export controls on allied nations and their companies.

Concerns Over U.S. Policy Shifts

"While Beijing still appears to be the biggest threat, dependence on Washington seems to have become of much greater concern under the second Trump administration," co-author Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the Institute for Security Studies, told Reuters.

EU Response and Strategic Initiatives

Chips Act 2.0 and Industry Collaboration

The European Commission is seeking to shore up the bloc's industry and in June proposed a Chips Act 2.0 that EU lawmakers must now discuss.

The proposal includes incentives to improve demand for domestically manufactured chips and it also joined Washington's "Pax Silica," an initiative of allied countries cooperating to secure supply chains.

Building on Existing Strengths

In addition to cooperating with allies to counter China, Teer said Europe's "only viable path" is to build on its existing pockets of strength, such as in the chipmaking equipment produced by ASML, to improve leverage.

Structural Weaknesses and Industry Challenges

Competitiveness Issues

The report, which drew on industry, political and academic sources, also found that factors including Europe's continuing high energy prices, lack of private capital, and the decline of industries that use chips have undermined the sector's competitiveness.

(Reporting by Toby Sterling; editing by Barbara Lewis)

Key Takeaways

  • China’s controls on critical minerals and magnets, and geopolitical risks like a Taiwan Strait conflict, imperil Europe’s chip supply chain.
  • Europe remains heavily dependent on U.S. technology (e.g., design software, chipmaking tools), and potential U.S. export controls—especially on ASML—pose a growing threat.
  • The EU’s Chips Act 2.0, part of a broader tech‑sovereignty package, aims to boost domestic demand, production capacity and resilience, but its success hinges on implementation, funding and reducing structural weaknesses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main threats to Europe's chip industry?
The main threats are Chinese export controls, dependence on US technology, and the structural weakness of Europe’s domestic chip sector.
How could US export controls impact the EU chip industry?
US legislation could allow Washington to block exports to China by companies like ASML, further increasing vulnerability for the EU chip sector.
What actions is the European Commission proposing for the chip industry?
The Commission has proposed a Chips Act 2.0 with incentives to boost demand for domestically manufactured chips and joined allied initiatives to secure supply chains.
Which company is a key asset for Europe in the semiconductor industry?
ASML, a chipmaking equipment supplier, is identified as Europe’s most valuable company and a key area of strength.
What structural weaknesses undermine EU chip industry competitiveness?
High energy prices, lack of private capital, and decline in chip-using industries contribute to the sector’s weakness.

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