Asian Stocks Notch Strong Weekly Gain as US Rate Hike Wagers Ease
By Ankur Banerjee
Asian Markets Rally Amid Easing US Rate Hike Expectations
SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Friday, poised for their strongest week in two months as benign inflation data dented expectations of an imminent U.S. rate hike, although faltering talks to end the war in the Middle East are likely to keep risk sentiment in check.
Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions
Brent futures steadied at $87.03 per barrel after a drop on Thursday but were set for a 4% weekly gain, snapping a two-week losing streak, after the U.S. threatened to ramp up economic pressure on Iran, including extending a naval blockade.
Markets have so far shrugged off the lack of progress in ending the Iran war, instead focusing on the broad AI theme and the global monetary policy outlook.
Impact of US Inflation Data
U.S. inflation reports this week suggested pricing pressure remained under control, lowering the odds of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve next month.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said risk appetite can hold for now because the immediate Fed hike risk has been repriced lower, noting softer oil is also helping.
"But this is still a headline-driven rally rather than a clean risk-on regime," said Chanana. "Without clarity on the Middle East/Hormuz, another oil spike could quickly revive inflation and Fed concerns."
Stock Market Performance
In stocks, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.28%, heading for a 2.7% weekly gain, its strongest performance since mid-June. Japan's Nikkei was 1.5% higher, set for an over 5% gain for the week.
Disconnect Between Geopolitics and Market Volatility
A puzzling feature of markets in recent months has been the growing disconnect between geopolitical uncertainty and asset price volatility, said John Sidawi, senior portfolio manager for fixed income at Federated Hermes.
"For now, markets appear willing to tolerate a significant amount of uncertainty without demanding higher risk premiums. However, this equilibrium is unlikely to be permanent," Sidawi said.
"A meaningful escalation in conflict or a clear path toward resolution could finally force investors off the sidelines, potentially triggering a much larger volatility response than current market pricing implies."
Currency and Commodities Update
Yen Stuck in Intervention Loop
YEN STUCK IN INTERVENTION LOOP
The yen was at 159.40 per U.S. dollar, hovering close to the crucial 160 level that traders believe could trigger another bout of yen buying from Tokyo, after a joint intervention with the U.S. at the end of July failed to steady the frail currency.
Traders have since warmed to the idea that the Bank of Japan may at last start to support the yen, pricing in the prospect of a rate hike next month, although the risk now is that investors might come away from the September meeting disappointed if the BOJ is deemed not hawkish enough.
Padhraic Garvey, head of global rates and debt strategy at ING, said the yen's weakness comes from "an uber-cautious Bank of Japan and a policy rate that remains too low," noting the yen is back testing 160 levels as the underlying issues remain.
"This tension can be eased through rate hikes, and the sooner, the better," said Garvey. "While that could be construed as negative for the economy, it's also a choice. Prioritise the protection of the yen, or not?"
Gold and US Treasuries
In commodities, gold was 0.8% down at $4,313 per ounce, as traders locked in profits after the yellow metal hit its highest level since early June in the previous session, due to dimming expectations of a near-term hike. [GOL/]
Traders are now pricing in a 35% chance of the Fed hiking next month, compared with 55% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. That led to a rally in U.S. Treasuries although a lacklustre U.S. 30-year bond auction weighed. [US/]
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul)
