How the absence of Iran's new supreme leader is becoming a liability for the Islamic Republic
The Enigmatic Leadership Vacuum in Iran
By Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall
DUBAI, July 10 - The whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei have been a mystery to Iranians and the rest of the world alike since his appointment as supreme leader a week after the strike that killed his father at the end of February.
His absence from the main funeral ceremonies for former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was so complete there was not even a written message, leaving people to guess at his plans for Iran at a turbulent time in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history.
Installed with the backing of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, he suffered facial disfigurement and other injuries in the strike, senior sources say. They say he has been making decisions but has not yet been well enough to appear in public.
Now, after hostilities with the U.S. reignited this week, his role and health are of critical — and growing — concern.
Public Concern and the Need for Visible Leadership
"I understand that, from a security standpoint, he should not appear in public. But the country is going through a very difficult time," said Taghi, 47, a shop owner in Isfahan who asked not to give his family name.
"There is a need for the Supreme Leader to be seen. Even if he has been injured, people need to see that there is a leader and that he is running the country."
Family Dynamics and Symbolic Representation
OTHER RELATIVES REPRESENT RULING FAMILY
The choreography of Thursday's burial, with prayers for the late Khamenei conducted over his coffin by his three other sons at Iran's holiest shrine, underscored the central place of family relationships among the Islamic Republic's leadership.
Mojtaba Khamenei's three brothers are not seen as significant political players in Iran — or likely to become so — though they have all become senior clerics.
But Ali Khomeini, a grandson of the founder of Iran's 1979 revolution, will speak on Mojtaba's behalf at a mourning ceremony on Friday, a nod to the way such family ties are used to emphasise continuity in the clerical system.
Speculation and Security Concerns
There had been speculation that Mojtaba Khamenei would finally appear — if not in person then with a recorded message or even new photographs — when his father was finally buried in the gold-domed shrine.
Senior sources in Iran have attributed the lack of any new image or voice recording since his March 8 appointment by a clerical assembly to health and security considerations.
The security risks are substantial given the assassination of his father in the very first U.S. and Israeli strikes of an unannounced war launched in the midst of diplomatic efforts to resolve the countries' disputes with Iran.
And as a political, strategic, religious and revolutionary figurehead bearing ultimate authority in Iran, he may need to appear more physically capable than his recuperation yet allows.
The last official word on his condition came from President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said in May that he met the leader and his condition was improving.
While the Revolutionary Guards appear to hold a tight rein over the country for now, it is not clear how long the leader of a theocratic state can remain out of sight.
"How do you have a charismatic succession when the successor isn't there? It's going to be a problem for them even if they ride it out for the time being. It's not sustainable in the long run," said Ali Ansari, modern history professor at St Andrews University in Scotland.
The Supreme Leader’s Relationship with the Revolutionary Guards
Building Power and Influence
NEW LEADER BUILT CLOSE TIES WITH GUARDS
His absence is starting to nag at Iranians, with more than 20 of those Reuters has contacted over recent weeks voicing concern about it in conversations about Iranian politics.
"The supreme leader's absence, now that the war is over, will lead to growing uncertainty and disorder in the country, especially after the burial of the late leader," said Mohammadreza, a 51-year-old teacher in Tehran.
Historical Context and Succession Challenges
The role of supreme leader is unlike that of most other heads of state, with Iran's official ideology recognising its officeholder as the representative on earth for Shi'ite Islam's 12th imam who disappeared in the ninth century.
It is not clear what Mojtaba Khamenei will make of it. The first leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was the charismatic father of the revolution and Iran's most venerable religious scholar, a man whose untouchable standing and fierce mien inspired unquestioning obedience.
His successor, Ali Khamenei, had been president when he was appointed leader, but had never been seen as an especially senior religious figure, and initially lacked the authority of Khomeini.
However, during his 37 years as leader he outmanoeuvred rivals and, with the close aid of the Revolutionary Guards, imposed his absolute writ on nearly every aspect of the country's political life.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s Position and the Uncertain Future
Mojtaba Khamenei also lacks religious credentials and, unlike his father, was not a powerful political figure in his own right. Instead he ran his father's sprawling office and its web of contacts across the country and built close ties with the Guards.
His opinions, authority and capability remain a blank slate, though it seems likely the Guards will remain central to the way he rules.
Ongoing Conflict and Leadership Ambiguity
With Iran still mired in the conflict despite the on-off truce, with its economy still throttled by sanctions, and with further bouts of mass unrest like the one violently suppressed in January, the country's leader remains a cipher.
(By Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
