US dollar hits more than one-year low as market eyes aggressive Fed rate cut

By Chibuike Oguh and Samuel Indyk

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar fell to a more than one-year low versus the yen on Monday, as expectations increased that the Federal Reserve could deliver a supersized cut to interest rates later this week.

The Fed had been widely expected to announce at least a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates at the conclusion of its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

But reports by the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times last week sparked speculation among traders that the central bank could deliver a more aggressive 50 bp cut.

Futures markets are pricing in a 61% chance of a 50 bp cut, up from around 15% last week.

“There’s only really one story today and that is a continuation of what we saw last week: after the CPI, the market was comfortable with a 25 basis point rate hike but many people suspect the Fed planted a story to put 50 basis points back on the table,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“The markets have responded accordingly. And in fact, they’re continuing to adjust.”

The dollar traded as low as 139.58 yen in Asia hours. That represented a further drop from the 140.285 end-of-December low struck on Friday to levels last seen in July 2023. It was last down 0.10% at 140.695 yen.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six others including the euro, yen and pound, was down 0.31% to 100.70.

U.S. Treasury yields have been falling in the run-up to the highly anticipated Fed meeting, particularly as odds stack up for a half-point rate cut.

Benchmark 10-year yields are down 30 basis points in about two weeks. Two-year yields, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, were around 3.571% and down from roughly 3.94% two weeks ago.

Investors are also looking to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Friday, when it is expected to keep its short-term policy rate target steady at 0.25%, having raised rates twice already this year.

BOJ board members have indicated they are keen to see rates higher, and the narrowing gap between rates in Japan and other major currencies has spurred the yen higher and caused billions of dollars worth of yen-funded carry trades to be unwound.

Sterling rose 0.58% to $1.3200. The euro was up 0.47% at $1.1128.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, but ECB President Christine Lagarde dampened expectations for another reduction in borrowing costs next month.

The ECB should almost certainly wait until December before cutting interest rates again to be certain it is not making a policy mistake in easing too quickly, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said on Monday.

The Bank of England is expected to hold its key interest rate at 5% on Thursday, after kicking off its easing with a 25-bp reduction in August. Futures markets were pricing in around a 38% chance of a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, versus a 20% chance on Friday.

Currency bid prices at 16 September​ 02:15

p.m. GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Dollar index 100.71 101.02 -0.31% -0.65% 101.01 100.58

Euro/Dollar 1.1125 1.1076 0.45% 0.79% $1.1138 $1.1077

Dollar/Yen 140.54 140.87 -0.18% -0.3% 140.81 139.64

Euro/Yen 1.1125​ 155.97 0.25% 0.47% 156.5 155.16

Dollar/Swiss 0.8447 0.8489 -0.48% 0.38% 0.8487 0.8436

Sterling/Dollar 1.3204 1.3125 0.61% 3.77% $1.3214 $1.3126​

Dollar/Canadian 1.3588 1.3586 0.04% 2.53% 1.3602 1.3568

Aussie/Dollar 0.674 0.6705 0.52% -1.15% $0.6749 $0.67

Euro/Swiss 0.9396 0.94 -0.04% 1.2% 0.9407 0.9384

Euro/Sterling 0.8425 0.8438 -0.15% -2.8% 0.8443 0.8424

NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.6185 0.6159 0.44% -2.11% $0.6199 0.6155

Dollar/Norway 10.6042​ 10.634 -0.28% 4.63% 10.6423 10.579

Euro/Norway 11.7988 11.7914 0.06% 5.12% 11.8003 11.7721

Dollar/Sweden 10.1909 10.2097 -0.18% 1.23% 10.2405 10.1654

Euro/Sweden 11.3384 11.3172 0.19% 1.92% 11.3395 11.306

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York and Vidya Ranganathan and Samuel Indyk in London; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)