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UK public inflation expectations surged after Iran war, BoE says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on June 12, 2026

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· Last updated: June 12, 2026

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UK Public Inflation Expectations Reach Record Highs After Iran War, Says BoE

Record Inflation Expectations Following Geopolitical Tensions

Impact of the U.S.-Israeli War on Iran

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - The British public's expectations for inflation in the long term rose to a record high last month after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran sent energy prices soaring, the Bank of England's quarterly inflation attitudes survey showed on Friday.

Short-Term Inflation Expectations

The public's median expectation for the rate of inflation in the year ahead increased to 4% from 3.2% in February.

Long-Term Inflation Expectations

For inflation in five years' time, expectations rose to 3.9% in May from 3.7% in February - their highest level since BoE records for this time series began in 2009 and far above the BoE's target for consumer price inflation of 2.0%.

BoE's Response and Policy Considerations

BoE policymakers monitor the public's inflation expectations carefully for signs that price pressures are becoming permanently embedded in consumer behaviour.

(Reporting by Suban Abdulla, editing by Andy Bruce)

Key Takeaways

  • Households one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.0% in May from 3.2% in February, according to the BoE survey—reflecting heightened concerns following the energy price shock linked to the Iran war. (investing.com)
  • Longer‑term inflation expectations (five years ahead) climbed to 3.9%, the highest on record since the BoE began tracking in 2009, well above the 2% target. (investing.com)
  • Energy-price-driven inflation concerns are rising. Citi/YouGov data showed short-term expectations surged to 5.4% in March, with five‑to‑ten year expectations at 4.5%, underscoring persistent inflation worries. (investing.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused UK inflation expectations to rise?
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran raised energy prices, leading to higher UK public inflation expectations according to the Bank of England.
How much did UK inflation expectations increase?
The public's median expectation for inflation in the year ahead rose to 4% from 3.2% in February.
What are long-term UK inflation expectations according to the BoE?
The expectation for inflation in five years' time rose to 3.9% in May, a record high since records began in 2009.
Why does the Bank of England monitor inflation expectations?
BoE policymakers monitor expectations to spot signs that price pressures are becoming permanently embedded in consumer behaviour.

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