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UK inflation expectations rise in August after recent falls, Citi/YouGov survey shows - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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UK inflation expectations rise in August after recent falls, Citi/YouGov survey shows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on August 25, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: August 25, 2026

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Citi/YouGov: UK Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply in August 2023

UK Public Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions

Survey Results and Recent Trends

LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Public inflation expectations in Britain rose in August, changing course after falling in recent months, a survey from U.S. bank Citi and pollsters YouGov showed on Tuesday.

Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Projections

Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months jumped to 3.9% from 3.4% in July while expectations for price growth in the longer term increased to 4.1% — their highest level since April — from 3.7%. 

Citi's Commentary on Inflation Outlook

"With inflation set to pick up over the coming months, this is a hawkish development in this series," Citi said.

Bank of England's Response and Future Outlook

The Bank of England is watching closely for signs that the jump in energy prices caused by the Iran war could turn into longer-lasting inflation pressures.

Considerations for Future Reports

Citi said it was wary of over-interpreting one report in isolation and that "next month's release should give a better steer on how to interpret this jump."   

(Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Mark Porter)

Key Takeaways

  • One‑year ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.9% in August from 3.4% in July, while longer‑term expectations rose to 4.1%, their highest level since April (bankofengland.co.uk).
  • The uptick signals growing concern that rising energy prices—especially those related to the Iran conflict—may push inflation back up and could heighten second‑round effects, damping disinflation efforts (bankofengland.co.uk).
  • Despite the rise in expectations, Citi cautioned against reading too much into a single survey and noted that next month’s release should shed further light on whether this marks a sustained shift (bankofengland.co.uk).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the latest Citi/YouGov survey show about UK inflation expectations?
The survey showed UK public inflation expectations rose to 3.9% for the next 12 months in August.
How do current UK inflation expectations compare to previous months?
Inflation expectations increased in August after several months of decline, jumping from 3.4% in July to 3.9%.
What is driving the rise in UK inflation expectations?
Rising energy prices, partly due to the Iran war, are contributing to higher inflation expectations in the UK.
What is the Bank of England’s response to rising inflation expectations?
The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflation data to assess if rising energy prices will lead to persistent inflation pressures.
What caution did Citi express regarding these survey findings?
Citi warned against over-interpreting a single report and suggested next month's data will provide better clarity.

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