UK grocery inflation accelerates over last month, says Worldpanel

UK Grocery Inflation Increases to 2.5% in October, Says Worldpanel Report

Overview of UK Grocery Inflation Trends and Market Impact

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - British grocery price inflation accelerated to 2.5% over the four weeks to October 4, market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator said on Tuesday, putting more pressure on households already facing higher motor fuel and energy bills.

The figure compared to 2.3% in last month's report, with prices rising fastest in products such as water, cordials and skincare and falling fastest in butter, cheese and chocolate.

Key Insights from the Worldpanel Report

• The Worldpanel data is the most up-to-date snapshot of UK consumer behaviour, providing an early indication of food pricing pressures in October. Official UK inflation data for September will be published on October 21

• UK food inflation has not hit the levels that were forecast earlier in the year, reflecting fierce supermarket competition, consumers' resistance to further price rises and better hedging in the industry

• Industry groups predict UK food inflation will hit nearly 7% in 2027, driven by Middle East disruption, rising input costs and extreme weather linked to El Nino

• The Worldpanel data showed UK grocery sales increased 1.0% over the four weeks year-on-year, indicating lower sales on a volume basis once inflation is taken into account

• Over the 12 weeks to October 4, industry leader Tesco's sales rose 1.0% year-on-year, but its market share edged lower for the fifth report in a row

• While Marks & Spencer isn't fully included in the Worldpanel data set, it remained the UK's fastest-growing food retailer with a 14.9% rise in sales of groceries

• Separate survey data published on Tuesday showed British consumers kept a lid on overall spending in September, with warm weather helping pubs but hurting clothing sales

UK Supermarket Market Share and Sales Growth

UK supermarkets' market share and sales growth (%)

Market Share and Sales Data Comparison

Market share Market % change in

12 weeks to share 12 sales

Oct 4 2026 weeks to year-on-yea

Oct 5 2025 r

Tesco 27.8 27.9 1.0

Sainsbury's 15.2 15.3 1.3

Asda 11.5 11.8 -0.5

Aldi 10.5 10.6 0.4

Lidl 8.6 8.2 7.1

Morrisons 8.3 8.3 1.8

Co-operative 5.4 5.4 1.8

Waitrose 4.4 4.4 2.3

Iceland 2.2 2.3 0.2

Ocado 2.2 2.0 12.4

Source: Worldpanel by Numerator

(Reporting by James Davey; editing by Sarah Young)