Swedish election is a close race with 10 days to go, poll shows

Swedish Election Poll Reveals Tight Contest Between Right and Centre-Left

Latest Opinion Polls Signal Uncertain Outcome

Right-Wing Bloc Gains Ground Ahead of Election

STOCKHOLM, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Sweden's ruling right-wing bloc has narrowed the gap to the centre-left opposition ahead of a parliamentary election on September 13, according to an opinion poll released on Thursday, the second survey this week to indicate a close race.

While earlier polls have pointed to near-certain victory for the opposition headed by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson, the latest surveys show that the government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, in office since 2022, may still win.

Poll Numbers Highlight Narrow Margin

Backing for the four centre-left parties was 50.6% in the Demoskop survey for dailies Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, while the three-party government and its support party, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, stood at 47.3%.

"The election is in no way decided yet. It is going to be close," Andersson told reporters on Thursday.

Comparison with Previous Polls

The gap of 3.3 percentage points between left and right was the second-smallest of any Swedish opinion poll published this year and compares with a 5.8 point gap in Demoskop's previous poll.

Challenges Facing the Right-Wing Coalition

But the new poll still showed Kristersson's junior coalition partner, the Liberals, firmly below parliament's 4% threshold, at 2.8%. Taking that into account, the right would take 163 out of 345 parliamentary seats, well below 186 for the centre-left.

Expert Opinions on Election Prospects

Professor Emeritus Jonas Hinnfors, a political scientist at Gothenburg University, said the Liberals appeared likely to miss the 4% limit on election day.

"If that is what's going to happen in the actual election, I think it's still likely that the current government and their support party, the Sweden Democrats, will lose the election," he said.

Historical Context and Methodology

Two weeks ago the centre-left held a 10 percentage point lead in a poll by a different agency, which political scientists at the time said was a near-insurmountable gap to bridge before election day.

Demoskop polled 1,998 voters between August 25 and September 1.

(Reporting by Anna Ringstrom and Simon Johnson, and Louise Rasmussen in Copehagen, editing by Terje Solsvik)