Russia to Slightly Reduce Oil Output in 2024 Amid Refinery Maintenance
Russia's Oil Production Outlook and Market Impact
Temporary Reduction in Oil Output
MOSCOW, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Russia will slightly reduce its oil output this year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday, but the situation is temporary and oil production will begin to increase once domestic refineries finish scheduled maintenance.
Government Forecasts and Budget Planning
A government draft forecast seen by Reuters this week showed Russia has downgraded the oil output forecast for this year to a 17-year low and revised the fuel exports outlook for 2026 and 2027 due to the war with Ukraine.
The forecasts, which are expected to be finalised at the end of September and are used in drafting the budget, reduced oil production estimates for 2026-2029 by between 16 million and 20 million tons compared to the previous outlook published in May.
Factors Behind Production Fluctuations
Refinery Maintenance and Output Decline
Novak said on the sidelines of an economic forum in Vladivostok that Russia was currently experiencing a "partial decline" in production volumes compared with forecast figures.
"This is partly due to oil refineries operating below capacity because of unscheduled maintenance. However, this is a temporary phenomenon, and in principle, as the refineries resume operations and the situation stabilises, production will increase," Russian news agencies cited him as saying on Thursday.
OPEC+ and Global Oil Markets
Impact of OPEC+ Production and Regional Challenges
Asked about the impact on the market of OPEC+ countries - which accounted for about 40% of global oil output in July, according to Reuters calculations - Novak said the group was experiencing what he called a "localised challenge" as a result of the drop in supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.
"Nevertheless, OPEC's role remains significant, as the production volumes of OPEC member countries are very high and account for a substantial proportion of global exports; therefore, this will undoubtedly continue to have a significant impact on global markets," Novak said.
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Olesya Astakhova; Writing by Lucy Papachristou and Gleb Stolyarov; Editing by Gleb Bryanski, Alexandra Hudson)
