Putin faces rival visions of war and peace at Russia's 'Davos'
Rival Futures for Russia at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum
By Guy Faulconbridge and Vladimir Soldatkin
ST PETERSBURG, Russia, June 4 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin faced two rival outlines of Russia's future on Thursday as he hosted his premier annual investment conference with the war in Ukraine unabated.
Conflicting Narratives at the Forum
Some participants at the glitzy St Petersburg International Economic Forum said Russia should fight on and gird for global confrontation with the West.
Others highlighted the economic benefits to be reaped from ending a war that came almost to the forum's doorstep when Ukrainian drones hit a St Petersburg oil terminal and naval base on Wednesday, sending smoke billowing over parts of the city.
The conflicting narratives illustrate the debate underway among political and business leaders over what the future might hold for Russia, and the domestic influences on Putin after more than four years of war in Ukraine.
Kremlin's Position on Sanctions
Putin's deputy chief of staff, Maxim Oreshkin, told the conference it was pointless to expect the old days to return or for the West to lift sanctions.
"You should not wait for something to change, for something to come back; it will not come back and it will not change," Oreshkin said.
Balancing Rival Factions
BALANCING RIVAL FACTIONS
Putin, 73, has long ruled by balancing the views of different Kremlin factions vying for influence with the man who has been Russia's paramount leader for the past quarter of a century.
Economic Stagnation and Calls for Peace
Signs that the $3-trillion economy is stagnating as the war drags on with no end in sight have strengthened the arguments of some within the "elite" that the war should be ended and peace struck with the mediation of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Nationalist Perspectives on Prolonged Conflict
But some nationalists see the war as merely the first stage of a much deeper global confrontation with what they say is a declining West that means years - or even decades - of possibly global war.
"We have to admit that we will be at war in the next few years, maybe for a couple of decades," said Andrey Bezrukov, a former spy arrested by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in 2010 while living under a false identity in the United States.
"It may be a very hot war, it may be a creeping war. Even if it goes to other regions, we will have two generations that can be considered basically to be at war. And we need to learn how to live with this war," Bezrukov said to applause in a packed hall.
Nationalist Proposals for Russia's Future
Nationalists have said Russia must get in shape or face potential collapse and destruction.
Among ideas put forward by nationalists at the conference, often portrayed as Russia's answer to the World Economic Forum in Davos, were streamlining decision making, developing technology and changing the perception of the Russian army within Russian society.
Weapons and Technology on Display
WEAPONS ON SHOW
In pavilions once graced each year by financiers from Western companies such as Goldman Sachs, drones and weapons were on show, while cyber firms advertised facial recognition technology and advanced cyber defensive programs that use AI.
Military Situation in Ukraine
Russia controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory following Putin's decision to send in tens of thousands of troops in February 2022, but its advances on the battlefield have slowed this year.
Russia has seized most of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine in fighting that began there in 2014 but has been unable to take the remaining 10% or so.
Ukraine says it will not withdraw its forces from the part of Donbas it still holds and that it will never recognise Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory Moscow has seized. Russia originally aimed to control all of Ukraine.
Stalled Peace Talks and Economic Costs
U.S.-brokered peace talks remain stalled, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Washington was "unfortunately" now paying less attention due to the Iran crisis.
Several prominent figures in Russia have tried in the past to warn Putin about the increasingly heavy economic costs of the war.
As Ukrainian drones and missiles target Russian oil facilities and military-industrial sites, Kirill Dmitriev, Moscow's point man in contacts with the Trump administration, has been touting the potential economic benefits of a peace deal.
"The question is: does this war end or do we stare into a much tougher future?" one Russian participant told Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Perspectives on Russia's Relations with the West
Putin says Moscow does not intend to attack NATO, whose member states' combined economies dwarf that of Russia even though it is the world's biggest supplier of natural resources.
Ultra-Nationalist Views on the War's End
But ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin, whose daughter Darya was killed in a 2022 car bomb that Moscow blamed on Ukraine, told reporters the war in Ukraine "will end either with Russia's victory or it will never end."
"We need to gather all our strength, gather all of our will and stop pretending that we are a peaceful country that goes off to barbecues or summer vacations," he said.
Dugin said Russia would not attack the West. But, asked to sum up Russia's relations with the West in the coming years, he said simply: "War".
(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge, Additional reporting by Mark Bendeich, Editing by Timothy Heritage and Gareth Jones)
