Oil prices settle 5% lower after claims of progress in US-Iran talks
By Shariq Khan
Oil Market Reactions to Diplomatic Developments
Price Movements and Market Data
NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 5% and settled at a three-week low on Tuesday after comments by Qatari and U.S. officials raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, which could improve oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures fell $4.41, or 5.3%, to settle at $79.36 a barrel, the lowest since July 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down $4.57, or 5.7%, at $75.77 a barrel, also a three-week low.
Diplomatic Efforts and Statements
Progress in US-Iran and Oman Talks
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday there was progress in talks with Iran and Oman about moving more ships through the strait, but a final agreement was yet to be reached. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said earlier on Tuesday that a deal with Iran to reopen the strait could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.
Qatar's Role in Mediation
Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said efforts to secure a diplomatic resolution to the war were continuing. Qatar's Emir and U.S. President Donald Trump have discussed ways to reduce escalation and converge viewpoints between the United States and Iran, the Emir's office said.
Other Regional Talks
Meanwhile, the latest round of U.S.-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon began on Tuesday and will continue through Thursday, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said.
Impact on Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risk
Market Sentiment and Risk Premium
The prospect of a diplomatic solution to the conflict has helped remove some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices after the U.S. resumed bombing Iran last month, said Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at brokerage XS.com.
"If negotiations between the United States and Iran make meaningful progress, the market could continue pricing in a lower probability of supply disruptions, further reducing the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices," Massabni said.
Gulf Shipping and Supply Disruptions
Current Status of Gulf Shipping Traffic
Disruptions and Output Cuts
GULF SHIPPING TRAFFIC LITTLE CHANGED
Disruptions to shipping through the strait, through which a fifth of global oil and gas flowed before the war, have forced Middle Eastern nations to cut oil output sharply.
The world has lost more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the Iran war began in February, the head of Saudi oil company Aramco said.
The oil market will remain highly sensitive to political developments, Massabni said.
Iranian Demands and Export Pressures
Oil prices gained earlier in Tuesday's session after a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran wants control over inbound shipping and visibility over outbound traffic through the strait, with the ability to intervene if necessary, as part of a plan being discussed with Oman to reopen the strategic waterway.
"Gulf exports remain under pressure, with Strait of Hormuz transits only marginally improving from extremely depressed levels. The export disruption story is intact, with Iranian attacks on vessels constraining flows," ANZ analysts said.
Shipping traffic at the key Gulf waterways of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz remained unchanged at the start of the week.
Market Outlook
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade in a range of $80 to $90 per barrel until there is either confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran agreement or a significant escalation in attacks and targets.
(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York, Anushree Mukherjee and Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Susan Fenton, Rod Nickel, Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski)
