Strait of Hormuz Closure Shakes Markets Amid US-Iran Talks, Fed Rate Risks
Market Reactions and Geopolitical Developments
June 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
US-Iran Peace Talks and Strait of Hormuz Closure
It's been a choppy session in Asia as off-again, on-again peace talks between the U.S. and Iran seemed to make progress.
Uncertainty Over the Strait’s Status
The whole process looked in doubt after President Trump threatened fresh attacks on Iran, and Tehran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again.
Then Iranian negotiators said progress had actually been made in the first session of talks, while officials for Oman and Pakistan stated a committee was being formed to run the discussions with an eye to reaching a deal in 60 days.
Shipping and Control Mechanisms
The status of the strait was not entirely clear, with shipping having slowed after U.S. Central Command said 55 vessels passed on Saturday, while tracking showed 32 the day before. Iran also suggested a mechanism would be set up to control the vital waterway, presumably including some sort of fee on shipping.
Market Movements and Fed Rate Hike Risks
The apparent progress saw Brent reverse course and slip 2.5% to under $79.00 a barrel, while Asian share markets swung higher. Wall Street futures and Treasuries pared early losses, though the mounting risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike loomed large.
Rate Hike Probabilities and Treasury Yields
Futures imply around a 75% chance of a rate rise as early as September and 41 basis points of tightening by year-end. Yields on 2-year Treasuries duly touched the highest since early 2025 at 4.2276%.
Political Developments in the UK
Trump also caused a stir in the UK by posting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer was set to resign, after multiple media reports that Starmer would announce his exit plans to allow a leadership contest by rival Andy Burnham, who won an election for a seat in parliament decisively last week.
Potential Impact on UK Fiscal Policy
If true, Burnham is considered certain to take the top job and likely to shake up the cabinet including replacing finance minister Rachel Reeves. The gilt market is unsure how committed Burnham is to fiscal strictness and worried he could end up spending and borrowing more.
Key Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
- Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives welcome remarks
- ECB President Christine Lagarde and Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis speak
- EU consumer confidence for June
- Canadian inflation for May
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
