G7 Summit: Iran and Ukraine Shape Finance and Geopolitics in France
Main Themes and Geopolitical Dynamics at the G7 Summit
By John Irish, Michel Rose and Andrea Shalal
PARIS, June 11 (Reuters) - Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are set to dominate next week’s Group of Seven summit, as host France crafts an agenda aimed at projecting unity and avoiding confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The June 15–17 gathering in Evian-les-Bains, on the shore of Lake Geneva, brings together the leaders of France, Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, alongside the European Union.
With Trump struggling to end a war that has disrupted the global economy, and frustrated with European allies he deems to have failed him in the Gulf and grown over-reliant on the U.S. for their security needs, diplomats say crisis management will be the focus.
No breakthrough decisions are thus expected on key issues, which also include tackling global economic imbalances and sourcing critical minerals outside China.
The grouping, founded half a century ago, has traditionally addressed economic and geopolitical challenges with broad consensus. But that cohesion has frayed since Trump returned to the White House in 2025.
Having already shifted the dates to accommodate Trump's birthday plans for cage fighting on the White House lawn, French officials, like other recent summit hosts, have set the bar low, suggesting it will be a success if Trump just stays for the whole event, having left the 2025 version early.
"Macron has gone out of his way to have an agenda that is designed to appeal to the sort of things President Trump wants," said Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council.
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s Role and U.S. Diplomacy
Trump's Mood May Depend on Iran
The tempo may be dictated by events in the Middle East. A fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is under strain, and securing even an interim accord that delays tackling harder issues such as Iran's nuclear programme is proving arduous.
Trump wants Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for global oil and gas shipments. Tehran is demanding that the U.S. end its blockade on Iranian ports and release frozen Iranian assets, and that Israel cease its attack on the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
Diplomats say Trump’s mood may hinge on whether he can get an accord done before the summit. In recent months, he has lashed out at some of the U.S.'s closest allies in NATO for their unwillingness to support his Gulf campaign.
One senior diplomat from a G7 member said an accord might allow the group to put months of tension with the U.S. behind them.
France has invited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, all directly harmed by the war, to the summit along with Egypt, a key player in mediation efforts.
European Strategy: Ukraine and Russia
Europeans Seek U.S. Reset on Ukraine
Also invited is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine have stalled and Zelenskiy wants a fresh push and is pressing for Europe to play a bigger role.
Zelenskiy frets that the conflict in Iran has diverted U.S. attention. Meanwhile, dynamics on the battlefield have shifted, with Ukrainian drones striking deeper into Russian territory to cut battlefield supply lines and hobble energy infrastructure.
European diplomats see the summit as an opportunity to convince Trump that U.S. proposals for a deal have been too favourable to Moscow. European nations also want to signal that they are willing to engage Moscow while tightening sanctions and boosting military support for Ukraine, emphasising that they believe Russia, not Kyiv, is blocking progress.
"What we are increasingly seeing is Europeans beginning to think about a life with less America,” said Victor Cha, head of geopolitics and foreign policy at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Economic Focus: China, Critical Minerals, and Global Imbalances
Global Imbalances Put Spotlight on China
Critical Minerals and Supply Chains
French officials have dropped plans for a sweeping final communique, opting instead for narrower joint statements on areas such as critical minerals, migration and drug trafficking.
Asuka Tatebayashi, senior analyst at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo, said the Japanese government and its major companies had for more than a decade built up stockpiles of critical minerals and shown they could weather supply shocks.
“It's one of the few fields that the U.S. actually comes to Japan for advice on,” Tatebayashi said.
She urged the G7 to agree to a substantive initiative on critical minerals such as minimum pricing, sharing of stockpiles or joint development projects, but said the differences among them were still wide.
Macroeconomic Imbalances and International Cooperation
Paris has used its presidency to push for action on global macroeconomic imbalances, a longstanding U.S. concern, before Washington takes the chair of the G20 this year and the G7 next.
France has framed the issue as a shared responsibility in that China overproduces, the United States overconsumes and Europe underinvests.
Brazil, India, Kenya and South Korea have been invited to the G7 to join the discussion, while Macron has urged China to boost its own consumption.
"None of that solves the problem, but the first step is recognising that you have one,” Lipsky said. “This has been discussed for years, but not collectively within the G7."
(Additional reporting by John Geddie in Tokyo, Giselda Vagnoni in Rome; Editing by Richard Lough)
