IEA Further Reduces Russian Oil Production Forecasts Due to Ukraine Conflict
IEA Revises Russian Oil Output Amid Ukraine Conflict
Impact of Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Energy Infrastructure
MOSCOW, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency said on Friday it again revised down the outlook for Russia's oil production due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure.
Crude output in Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer, has been declining amid Ukraine's strikes on the country's energy infrastructure, including oil refineries.
Latest IEA Oil Production Forecasts
IEA's Monthly Review and Forecast Adjustments
The Paris-based IEA said in its monthly review that Russia's crude forecast was cut by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd in 2026 and by 235,000 bpd in 2027, when it is expected to average 8.6 million bpd.
Russian Government's Revised Outlook
A government draft forecast seen by Reuters last week showed Russia had downgraded the oil output outlook for this year to a 17-year low and revised the fuel exports outlook for 2026 and 2027 due to the conflict with Ukraine.
Recent Declines in Russian Oil Production
IEA Data on Monthly Production Drops
According to the IEA, Russia's oil production declined last month by 200,000 barrels per day from July to 8.36 million bpd.
That is a steep 940,000 bpd lower than the January 2026 peak of 9.3 million bpd and 695,000 bpd below year-ago levels, the IEA said.
Transparency and Data Publication Issues
Russia's Suspension of Oil Output Data
Russia stopped publishing data on oil output in April 2023, a little more than a year after the start of the conflict in Ukraine.
OPEC's Observations on Russian Production
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Thursday that Russia's oil production declined by 160,000 bpd in August from July to 8.718 million bpd.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova and Vladimir SoldatkinEditing by Tomasz Janowski)
