German unemployment rises slightly more than expected in July
Germany's Labour Market Trends and Economic Outlook
By Maria Martinez
Unemployment Figures and Analyst Expectations
BERLIN, July 31 (Reuters) - The number of unemployed people in Germany rose slightly more than expected in July and came close to the politically important 3 million mark in seasonally adjusted terms, according to Labour Office data released on Friday.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the jobless figure grew by 6,000 to 2.99 million, Labour Office figures showed, while analysts polled by Reuters had predicted an increase of 5,000.
The seasonally adjusted jobless rate stood at 6.4%, up from 6.3% the previous month.
Labour Market Trends and Expert Commentary
"The weak trend observed in the labour market over recent months is continuing," said Daniel Terzenbach, a member of the Regional Management Board of the Federal Employment Agency.
Economic Growth and Geopolitical Risks
Gross domestic product in Europe's largest economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, but risks loom as hostilities flare up again between Iran and the U.S., meaning prices could stay high for longer than initially expected, taking a toll on investment and consumption.
Labour market data typically react with a lag to geopolitical shocks.
Early labour market indicators suggest that, at best, the labour market will move sideways over the coming months, said Marc Schattenberg, economist at Deutsche Bank Research.
"However, if the German economy continues to perform as robustly as it did in the second quarter, the labour market is likely to regain momentum from autumn onwards," Schattenberg said.
Unemployment Surpasses 3 Million in Unadjusted Terms
Seasonal Factors and Labour Market Challenges
ABOVE THE 3 MILLION MARK IN UNADJUSTED TERMS
The overall unadjusted number of unemployed people ticked over the 3 million mark in July.
The three million mark was surpassed for the first time in a decade last year in August, showing the toll of economic stagnation on the labour market.
"Unemployment and underemployment are rising noticeably in July, primarily due to seasonal factors," Terzenbach said.
Inflation and Labour Demand
Adding to the gloom, inflation accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in July from 2.4% in the previous month on higher energy prices caused by the Iran conflict, data showed on Thursday.
"If sustained, the rebound in GDP growth eventually will feed through to the labour market," said Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "For now, however, the near-term outlook remains difficult."
Labour demand remains weak, the office said. In total, 653,000 job openings were registered with the labour office in July, 25,000 more than a year ago.
(Reporting by Maria Martinez, editing by Thomas Seythal, Miranda Murray and Sharon Singleton)
