German Chemicals Lobby Expects Further Output Decline in 2026
German Chemical Industry Faces Ongoing Challenges
By Anastasiia Kozlova
Production and Sales Forecasts for 2026
July 16 (Reuters) - Germany's chemical industry expects production, including pharmaceuticals, to fall 1.5% in 2026, its main lobby group VCI said on Thursday, warning that a recent improvement in conditions amounts to only a temporary reprieve rather than a sustained recovery.
The association forecast another year of declining output as weak sales volumes, rising costs and subdued investment continue to weigh on the sector, a key pillar of Germany's manufacturing economy.
First Half 2026 Performance
Production in Germany's chemical and pharmaceutical industry fell 3% in the first half of 2026, while sales declined 1% to 106 billion euros ($123.4 billion), VCI said. Producer prices rose 2%.
"The half-year results are disappointing," VCI President Markus Steilemann said in a statement.
Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty
Middle East Conflict and Market Effects
The group had declined to publish industry forecasts in March and May because of uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, but said any recent improvement in conditions was unlikely to mark the start of a broader turnaround.
Temporary Benefits for European Producers
VCI said disruptions linked to the conflict had temporarily benefited some European chemical producers by hurting more feedstock-dependent Asian competitors. However, it said the effect was insufficient to offset broader weakness in demand and investment.
Contrasting Optimism Among Companies
The outlook contrasts with growing optimism at some individual companies. Evonik Industries and Brenntag have both recently raised their full-year profit forecasts.
Industry Significance in Germany
Germany's chemical and pharmaceutical industry is the country's third-largest industrial sector and is widely seen as a bellwether for manufacturing demand, supplying materials to industries ranging from autos and construction to agriculture and textiles.
(Reporting by Anastasiia Kozlova; editing by Bartosz Dabrowski and Matt Scuffham)
