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ECB survey shows broadly unchanged inflation outlook - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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ECB survey shows broadly unchanged inflation outlook

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 24, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: July 24, 2026

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ECB Survey Indicates Steady Inflation Expectations, 2% Target by 2028

ECB Survey Findings and Economic Outlook

Stable Inflation Expectations in the Euro Zone

FRANKFURT, July 24 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation expectations remained broadly unchanged over the past three months and price growth is seen falling quickly next year before returning back to the 2% target in 2028, a European Central Bank survey showed on Friday.

Current Inflation Trends and Projections

Inflation, the ECB's primary focus, has been running at about 3% for months due to surging energy costs, but most economists think price growth is close to peaking and will decline back towards the target sometime in 2027.

Survey Data and Long-Term Forecasts

The survey, a key input in policy deliberations, showed inflation averaging 2.7% this year, unchanged from the previous projection, while the 2027 figure was raised to 2.2% from 2.1%. Inflation will then hit 2% in 2028 and stay there, the survey showed.

ECB Policy Decisions and Economic Growth

Interest Rate Decisions

The ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday as the energy price surge has yet to generate second-round effects that could perpetuate rapid inflation, but it clearly hinted at more tightening ahead, possibly as soon as September.

Growth Projections and Economic Weakness

The ECB also stayed on hold because economic growth remained lukewarm, and fresh survey projections highlighted this weakness.

Revised Growth Figures

Growth this year is seen at 0.6%, below the 1.0% projected three months earlier, while next year's growth was lowered to 1.2% from 1.3%.

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi;Editing by Helen Popper)

Key Takeaways

  • Headline inflation forecast unchanged at 2.7% for 2026, rising slightly for 2027 to 2.1%, and reaching the 2% target in 2028 (ecb.europa.eu)
  • Core inflation (excluding energy and food) expected at 2.2% for both 2026 and 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, marking upward revisions for near-term (ecb.europa.eu)
  • Real GDP growth forecasts lowered: 1.0% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027, down from prior estimates; unemployment expectations remain steady around 6.3% for 2026 (ecb.europa.eu)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the latest ECB survey reveal about euro zone inflation?
The ECB survey shows that euro zone inflation expectations have remained broadly unchanged and are projected to reach the 2% target in 2028.
How have inflation projections for 2027 and 2028 changed in the ECB survey?
The projection for 2027 was raised to 2.2% from 2.1%, and inflation is expected to hit 2% in 2028 and remain at that level.
Did the ECB change interest rates in its latest meeting?
The ECB left interest rates unchanged, but hinted at possible tightening in upcoming meetings due to ongoing energy price impacts.
Why is the ECB concerned about energy prices?
Surging energy costs have kept inflation around 3%, but the ECB believes this will not lead to sustained rapid inflation or second-round effects yet.

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