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ECB to revise inflation, growth forecasts, its chief economist says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 26, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: May 26, 2026

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ECB Set to Update Inflation, Growth Projections in Light of Global Risks

ECB's Economic Outlook and Upcoming Forecast Revisions

Impact of Middle East Conflict on Economic Projections

TOKYO, May 26 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will likely revise its inflation and growth forecasts next month reflecting the darkening outlook from the Middle East conflict, its chief economist Philip Lane told Nikkei newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday.

"There are several factors related to the Iran war that show that the macroeconomic outlook has gotten worse," Lane said in an interview with the Japanese business daily.

Energy Market Developments and Inflationary Pressures

He also said oil prices were expected to remain elevated for longer compared with the ECB's assumptions in March. While increased U.S. natural gas supplies could help cushion the energy market, "on net, I still think that there has been upward pressure on inflation," he said.

Upcoming Forecast Adjustments

"We are likely to make a further upward adjustment to the inflation forecast in June," Lane said in the interview.

ECB's Forecast Revision Schedule

The ECB revises its growth and inflation projections every three months. The next revision comes on June 11.

(Reporting by Leika KiharaEditing by Ros Russell)

Key Takeaways

  • Philip Lane expects further upward adjustment to the ECB’s inflation forecast in June, citing extended oil price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict (apnews.com).
  • The Middle East war has already prompted inflation to rise from 1.9% in February to around 3.0% by April in the euro area, marking a significant uptick amid expanding energy costs (lemonde.fr).
  • EU officials warn that oil and gas prices could stay elevated through 2027, potentially anchoring higher inflation for years and undermining economic growth projections (apnews.com).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does the ECB update its growth and inflation projections?
The ECB revises its growth and inflation projections every three months.

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