Finance
Key ECB survey sees benign inflation path around target
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 31, 2025
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Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 31, 2025
FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Euro zone inflation will remain at or near the European Central Bank's 2% target in the coming years and growth is seen slowly picking up towards its potential, a key ECB survey showed on Friday.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row on Thursday, arguing that the inflation outlook remains broadly unchanged with price growth hovering around the 2% target and likely remaining near this level over the coming years.
The ECB's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, a key input into policy deliberations, sees inflation easing to 1.8% next year, then coming back to 2.0% in 2027, in line with the previous survey's prediction three months ago, and 0.1 percentage points above the ECB's own projections.
Over the longer term, defined as in 2030, the survey sees inflation at 2.0%, unchanged from the third quarter.
October inflation, due at 1000 GMT, is expected to show a small decline to 2.1% from 2.2% a month earlier before dipping to 1.6% in early 2026, according to the ECB's own in-house projections. It is then seen slowly coming back to 2% by the middle of 2027.
Economic growth, seen at 1.2% this year, is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2026 before picking up to 1.4% in 2027 and hovering around 1.3% over the longer term. All projections for 2026 and beyond are unchanged from three months earlier.
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Andrew Heavens)