Caixabank keeps 2026-27 guidance unchanged, shares fall
By Jesús Aguado
Caixabank's Financial Outlook and Market Reaction
MADRID, July 29 (Reuters) - Spain's Caixabank reaffirmed on Wednesday it expected higher lending income and profits in 2026 and 2027, thanks to loan growth driven by Spain's solid economic performance.
But its share fell after it left its 2026 margin outlook unchanged.
Net Interest Income and Lending Growth
Spanish banks benefited from variable-rate lending when interest rates rose, but recent lower rates squeezed margins. Geopolitical tensions have since pushed market rates higher. Caixabank's net interest income - a measure of earnings on loans minus deposit costs - rose 3.5% year-on-year to €2.73 billion, compared with analysts' average forecast of €2.76 billion euros and rose 2.5% from the previous quarter. The lender reiterated NII for the full year would be above €11 billion, compared with €10.67 billion in 2025, and said it expects compound annual NII growth of 4% over 2025 to 2027.
Growth in Spanish Economy
The target is underpinned by an expected 6% rise in performing loans over the period, with Caixabank forecasting the Spanish economy to grow 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, around double the pace of the euro zone as a whole.
Share Performance and Analyst Commentary
Shares in Caixabank fell around 6% by 0746 GMT, after having risen 20% so far in 2026, as global shares were dragged lower by a punishing selloff in tech stocks.
Broker and Analyst Perspectives
Broker Jefferies said stronger fees offset weaker NII, adding that the slight NII miss was explained by a rise in deposit costs, though the lack of a guidance upgrade will "surely come as a disappointment."
Outlook for 2027 and Beyond
It however remained positive for NII in 2027 and 2028.
Profitability and Provisions
Higher fees and insurance business supported a 10% rise in net profit in the quarter to €1.63 billion, above forecasts of €1.55 billion, while revenue grew in line with forecasts.
Return on Equity and Loan Growth
Caixabank finished the quarter with a return on equity ratio (ROTE), a measure of profitability, of 18% compared with a target of more than 18% by the end of 2026 and of around 20% in 2027.
Provisions and Customer Loans
Provisions in the second quarter rose 39.2% year-on-year to €247 million, in line with forecasts, following a 4.6% rise in customer loans from the previous quarter.
($1 = 0.8775 euros)
(Reporting by Jesús Aguado; Additional reporting by Emma Pinedo; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala and David Holmes)
