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BHP misses quarterly copper output estimates, flags lower Chilean production - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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BHP misses quarterly copper output estimates, flags lower Chilean production

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 15, 2026

3 min read

· Last updated: July 16, 2026

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BHP wins higher quarterly iron ore prices, overcoming China's buying curbs

BHP's Iron Ore and Copper Performance: Production, Pricing, and Outlook

Record Iron Ore Output and Pricing Amid China Tensions

July 16 (Reuters) - BHP Group posted record iron ore output and higher realised prices on Thursday, despite purchasing restrictions imposed by China Mineral Resources Group amid tense contract talks earlier this year.

Annual iron ore production from BHP's Western Australia operations on a 100% basis came in at 291.2 million metric tons, above last year's 290 Mt.

Average realised prices for iron rose 3% to $84.56 per wet ton in fiscal 2026.

Impact of China’s State Buyer and Contract Negotiations

BHP did not mention any pricing impacts from its annual negotiations with China's state buyer, after Reuters reported in April that its biggest customer had lifted its ban on certain products.

China's state buyer has been flexing its muscles during annual pricing negotiations with big iron ore miners as it looks to tap its market size to pay less for iron ore, and lower costs for its steelmakers.

Production Projections and Quarterly Performance

For fiscal 2027, the miner projects to produce 284-296 Mt of iron ore from its Western Australia operations.

In the last quarter of 2026, iron output was 74.8 Mt, compared to the Visible Alpha consensus of 75.1 Mt and 77.5 Mt produced in the same period a year ago.

Industrial Action and Operational Developments

Later on Thursday, hundreds of workers are scheduled to go on strike at BHP's Port Hedland iron ore operations, a major artery that handles about $80 million worth of iron ore daily, with negotiations set to resume on Tuesday next week.

Copper Performance and Strategic Outlook

Quarterly Copper Production and Market Drivers

COPPER PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK

Meanwhile, quarterly production of copper, which BHP sees as a long-term source of value growth, was 491,900 tons in the quarter ended June 30, largely in line with the Visible Alpha estimate of 492,700 tons and below 516,200 tons reported last year. 

Copper is drawing greater focus from major miners as demand surges, driven by rapid growth in power use by AI data centers and transition to cleaner energy.

Operational Challenges and Production Forecasts

Last quarter, production at Copper South Australia was affected by an unexpected failure of the underground conveyor belt at Carrapateena, with the recovery and replacement process expected to impact mine production for up to eight weeks. 

Copper production was forecast to fall as much as 15.5% next year due to an expected grade decline at Escondida.

Cost Management and New Project Approvals

BHP also projected that fiscal 2026 unit costs would be at the lower end of its forecast range, demonstrating strong cost management and resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.   

Separately, the miner announced approval of $900 million for the Ministers North iron ore project in Pilbara, with first output expected in fiscal 2029.

Market Reaction and Upcoming Results

Shares slipped more than 1% in early trade, compared to a near 1% drop in the mining sub-index.

BHP will report annual results on August 18.

(Reporting by Sneha Kumar and Sherin Sunny in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai and Rashmi Aich)

Key Takeaways

  • Q4 copper production missed expectations at 491.9 Kt vs. 492.7 Kt forecast, and dropped from 516.2 Kt a year earlier.
  • FY2027 copper guidance of 1,650–1,800 Kt is materially lower than FY2026 output of 1,952.8 Kt, mainly due to declining ore grades at Escondida.
  • Western Australia iron ore output (74.8 Mt) also fell short of the 75.1 Mt consensus; miner approved US $900 m for Pilbara’s Ministers North project with first output expected FY2029.
  • Global copper market enters a tighter supply environment—with the International Copper Study Group forecasting a 150 Kt refined copper deficit in 2026—adding context to BHP’s production pressures.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much copper did BHP produce in the fourth quarter?
BHP produced 491.9 thousand metric tons of copper in the quarter ended June 30.
Why did BHP's copper production fall short of estimates?
Lower production at Escondida and Pampa Norte, as well as an unexpected conveyor belt failure at Carrapateena, contributed to the shortfall.
How did BHP's iron ore output perform in the same quarter?
Iron ore output from Western Australia was 74.8 million metric tons, below both consensus estimates and last year's figures.
What new investment did BHP announce in this report?
BHP approved $900 million for the Ministers North iron ore project in Pilbara, with first output expected in fiscal 2029.

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