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Bank of England's Bailey sees 'subdued' second-round inflation effects for now - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Bank of England's Bailey sees 'subdued' second-round inflation effects for now

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on August 28, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: August 28, 2026

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Bank of England's Bailey: Second-Round Inflation Effects Remain Subdued for UK

Bailey Comments on Inflation and Monetary Policy

Limited Impact of Energy Price Surge on UK Inflation

Aug 28 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that he still saw little sign that the surge in energy prices caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict was creating serious longer-term inflation pressures in Britain.

Subdued Second-Round Effects

"So far I think we're seeing quite subdued second-round effects," Bailey said in an interview with Bloomberg TV at a U.S. Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, reiterating his recent comments on the inflation outlook.

Factors Restraining Inflation

Labour Market Conditions

Bailey highlighted a soft labour market — which limits workers' ability to bargain for higher pay — as one factor restraining inflation, but added that he could make no promises about how the economy would develop in future.

Monetary Policy Committee Decisions

Interest Rate Vote

Bailey was part of the 6-3 majority on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee who voted to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% in July, when he told a press conference that he did not want to signal that the BoE was "edging towards a hike".

Market Expectations

Rate Hike Speculation

Financial markets on Friday priced in one quarter-point rate hike by the BoE before the end of the year — pricing which Bailey described in July as reflecting market worries about an escalation of the U.S.-Iran war rather than the most likely path for BoE policy.

(Reporting by David MillikenEditing by William Schomberg)

Key Takeaways

  • Bailey noted that, despite higher energy costs from the U.S.‑Iran conflict, second‑round inflationary effects remain “subdued,” supported by a looser labour market that dampens wage bargaining.
  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently held rates at 3.75%, with six of nine members—including Bailey—against a hike amid ongoing uncertainty around energy‑price persistence and inflation dynamics.
  • While financial markets anticipate a 25‑basis‑point rate increase before year‑end, Bailey cautioned this reflected fears of war escalation rather than the BoE’s central policy path.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Andrew Bailey's outlook on UK inflation?
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey currently sees subdued second-round effects from the recent surge in energy prices and does not expect serious long-term inflation pressures in Britain.
How does the labour market affect UK inflation according to Bailey?
Bailey notes that a soft labour market is limiting workers' ability to bargain for higher pay, which in turn is helping to keep inflation restrained.
What is the current Bank of England interest rate?
As of July, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%.
Are further interest rate hikes expected from the Bank of England?
Financial markets expect one quarter-point rate hike before year-end, but Bailey suggests this is based on market concerns about the U.S.-Iran conflict rather than the BoE's policy outlook.
What external factor is affecting UK inflation expectations?
The surge in energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict is a key factor influencing inflation outlooks and market expectations for policy changes.

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