US Dollar Surges After Warsh Rate Hike Hints at Jackson Hole Symposium
Market Reaction and Analyst Insights
By Chuck Mikolajczak
Dollar Strengthens on Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech
NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar saw strong gains on Friday, putting it on track for its biggest daily climb in 2-1/2 months after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh hinted that interest rate hikes may be needed should policymakers doubt that inflation is headed back toward the central bank's 2% target.
In his debut speech at the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers, Warsh said the Fed will "have work to do" should inflation not appear to be cooling, in remarks that acknowledged financial conditions do not appear restrictive and marked the closest he has come to recognizing that interest rate hikes may be needed to ease price pressures.
Rate Hike Expectations Rise
Expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's September meeting jumped to 57.5% in the wake of Warsh's comments, according to CME FedWatch, up from about 35% before the speech.
Analyst Commentary
"At least for the time being, we're getting more of the same Warsh-speak that we saw prior to any of the Fed decisions that he had been a part of. Meaning he's saying a lot, but none of this seems really substantive," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in Stamford, Connecticut.
"If the Fed doesn't follow through again, I don't want to be dramatic and say that credibility is getting eroded, but I think a better way to phrase it is that the market's going to be looking at his commentary going forward with a giant grain of salt."
Currency Movements and Weekly Performance
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.59%, on track for its biggest gain since June 17, to 99.69, after hitting 99.727, its highest level since August 17. The euro was off 0.59% at $1.1582 after falling to $1.1577, its lowest level since August 19.
Greenback Extends Weekly Gains
For the week, the greenback is up nearly 0.9% and on track for its biggest weekly gain in 10 weeks, while the euro is off about 0.8% and poised for its first weekly drop after four straight weeks of gains.
Fed Officials' Views on Inflation
Warsh's comments came after a trio of Fed officials on Thursday voiced their concerns about stubbornly above-target inflation, although Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said the latest inflation reading was "mixed," while she continues to see gradual disinflation.
Major Currency Moves
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.48% to 160.15 and was on track for its third weekly gain in four weeks. Data showed annual core inflation in Tokyo accelerated in August for the third straight month, a sign of broadening price pressures, which bolsters the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next month.
Sterling weakened 0.47% to $1.3528 and was on track to snap a four-week streak of gains.
The Canadian dollar fell 0.37% versus the greenback to C$1.39 per dollar. Canada's economy rebounded sharply in the second quarter after six months of virtually no growth, aided by a strong jump in exports and solid domestic demand, data showed, though a new round of U.S. tariffs brings new uncertainty.
Trade Tensions Impact Canadian Dollar
The loonie is down about 1% against the greenback this week after a four-week run of gains, and is and is set to mark its biggest weekly drop in just over two months as trade talks between the U.S. and Canada collapsed last weekend, prompting the announcement of tariffs by both countries.
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak in New York; Additional reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Matthew Lewis)