Bank of England's Bailey signals no need to move quickly to curb inflation jump
Bailey's Perspective on Inflation and Monetary Policy
Inflation Tolerance Amid Economic Uncertainty
May 29 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that allowing inflation to run above the central bank's 2% target is justified given the uncertainty about the impact of the Iran war on the economy and the weak pace of growth.
Conditions for Reduced Tolerance
"But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge," Bailey said, referring to longer-term inflation pressures, in a speech at a conference in Reykjavik organised by Iceland's central bank.
Monetary Policy Committee's Recent Decisions
The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates on hold on April 30 as it waited to see the economic impact of the Iran war, even as the central bank said it expected inflation to climb in response to the energy price shock from the conflict.
Bailey's Recent Remarks
In his speech on Friday, Bailey reiterated comments he made last week in which he said that the BoE had tightened monetary policy by taking rate cuts off the table "and that is already affecting the economy."
Monitoring Global Events
"We have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required," he said in Reykjavik.
Comparison with Other Central Banks
Bailey and most of his colleagues on the MPC have previously signalled they are in no rush to raise borrowing costs.
European Central Bank's Approach
By contrast, policymakers at the European Central Bank have signalled a likely rate rise in June after it cut rates by more than the BoE before the war.
Market Expectations and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets are fully pricing one BoE quarter-point rate hike over the remainder of 2026 - in November - and only a roughly one-in-three chance of a second one. In March, investors were pricing more than three hikes.
Bailey's Response to Market Bets
Bailey welcomed that scaling back of bets by investors. "I hope it goes on. I think that will depend on events in the Middle East," he said in a question-and-answer session after Friday's speech.
(Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Alistair Smout)
