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Finance

UK inflation expectations highest in 14 months, Citi/YouGov survey shows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 20, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: March 20, 2025

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UK Inflation Expectations Hit 14-Month High, Survey Finds

LONDON (Reuters) - The British public's expectations for inflation in the short term hit their highest level in more than a year in February, according to a Citi/YouGov survey on Thursday that underscored the challenges facing the Bank of England.

The survey showed households' inflation expectations for the year ahead stood at 3.9% last month, up from 3.5% in January and the highest level since January 2024.

Longer-term expectations rose to 3.9% from 3.7% in January.

"For the Monetary Policy Committee, the pickup in inflation expectations will be a challenging, but perhaps predictable, outcome," analysts at Citigroup said.

The BoE, which held interest rates at 4.5% on Thursday, is keeping an eye on inflation expectations among other gauges of price pressures in the economy.

"These increases could be broadly explained by households responding to actual inflation and in particular salient prices, such as food and energy, but they nevertheless represented an upside risk to future pay and inflation dynamics," the minutes from the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, said.

The BoE/Ipsos measure of households' inflation expectations for the coming 12 months - published last week - rose to 3.4% in February, the highest since August 2023.

The central bank said on Thursday its Decision Maker Panel survey of expectations among businesses for consumer price inflation inched up slightly at the start of the year.

(Reporting by Muvija M; editing by William Schomberg)

Key Takeaways

  • UK inflation expectations hit highest level in over a year.
  • Citi/YouGov survey shows short-term expectations at 3.9%.
  • Bank of England faces challenges with rising expectations.
  • BoE held interest rates steady at 4.5%.
  • Inflation expectations pose risks to future dynamics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main topic?
The main topic is the rise in UK inflation expectations as reported by a Citi/YouGov survey.
How have inflation expectations changed?
Short-term expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest since January 2024, posing challenges for the Bank of England.
What is the Bank of England's response?
The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.5% and is monitoring inflation expectations closely.

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