Europe Faces Jet Fuel Supply Shortage in Q4 as South Korea Increases Exports
Europe's Jet Fuel Market Dynamics and Supply Challenges
By Seher Dareen and Trixie Yap
Overview of the Jet Fuel Deficit
LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Europe faces a fourth-quarter jet fuel deficit, even as it turns to far-flung suppliers including South Korea, which is set to boost its jet exports to Europe to a four-year high in September, according to analysts and shipping data.
The continent has been importing more jet fuel from nations including Nigeria, the United States and Canada since the outbreak of the Iran war over half a year ago, which hit Middle East supplies and cut off around half of Europe's jet imports.
Risks and Forecasts
Europe remains highly exposed to the risk of further supply disruption as Middle Eastern tensions rise. Consultancy Energy Aspects forecasts that Europe will see a fourth-quarter jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day, against surpluses of 18,000 bpd in the United States and 419,000 bpd in Asia-Pacific. The third-quarter trend is largely the same.
South Korea's Role in European Jet Fuel Imports
South Korea in September has become the latest large source of jet fuel shipments to Europe, according to flows data. European imports of the fuel from the Asian nation so far in September stand at 129,000 barrels per day according to commodities intelligence firm Kpler, the highest since October 2022. LSEG data shows similar volumes.
With the continent expected to remain short of jet fuel, Europe's imports are set to continue, said James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities.
Market Factors Driving Imports
Jet fuel is one of the so-called middle distillates, which include diesel and gas oil. European diesel hit a record high this week, firmer than Asia's diesel markets.
Profitability and Price Spreads
The widening spread between the Asian and European benchmarks is making it more profitable to export barrels into Europe, Noel-Beswick added.
Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks Drop
Imports from South Korea also coincide with low inventories, with stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil refining and storage hub hitting their lowest in seven years in the week to September 10. [ARA/]
Asia as a Swing Supplier
Asia is a swing supplier of jet fuel to Europe and traders typically turn there when they judge the arbitrage - the relative prices between the two regions - profitable. Average monthly exports last year were 1.5 million barrels, Kpler data showed.
South Korea's Jet Fuel Production and Exports
South Korea's jet fuel output for July hit a seven-year high of almost 13.89 million barrels, while exports reached a 3-1/2-year high, government data showed.
Refinery Processing Rates and Future Outlook
An increase in refinery crude processing rates has contributed to this rise in output, and traders expect crude runs for August to be firmer than July. Provisional government data showed July refining runs at 2.7 million barrels per day, up by 16% from June.
(Reporting by Seher Dareen in London and Trixie Yap in Singapore, editing by Alex Lawler and Tomasz Janowski)
