Iran war yet to push up UK grocery prices, says Worldpanel
UK Grocery Inflation and Market Trends Amid Middle East Conflict
By James Davey
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - British grocery inflation eased to 3.8% in the four weeks to April 19 from 4.3% in the previous period, data from Worldpanel by Numerator showed on Tuesday, indicating that the war with Iran has yet to feed through to supermarket prices.
The data showed UK grocery sales increased 0.9% in the four-week period year-on-year. With shoppers increasingly seeking deals, spending on promoted items rose 7.8%.
Consumer Behaviour and Promotional Spending
"Already feeling the squeeze at the petrol pump, shoppers are responding by turning to special offers in growing numbers when buying groceries," Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said.
The Worldpanel data give the most up-to-date snapshot of UK consumer behaviour and provide an early indication of pricing pressures in April ahead of official UK data on May 20.
Price Changes Across Product Categories
Medicines, Meat, and Fish Prices Rising Fastest
MEDICINES, MEAT AND FISH PRICES RISING FASTEST
It said prices were rising fastest in markets such as medicines and treatments and fresh unprocessed meat and fish, and falling fastest in butter and spreads, sugar confectionery and household paper.
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Grocery Prices
It said the easing of grocery inflation indicated "that the impact of the conflict in the Middle East has not yet filtered through to supermarket shelves in Britain."
Tesco, Britain's biggest food retailer, said earlier this month it had not yet seen any meaningful inflation in grocery prices due to the conflict and "did not recognise" a Food and Drink Federation warning that food prices will be rising by almost 10% by December.
Retailer Performance and Market Share
Shop Price Inflation and Discounting
Separate data on Tuesday from the British Retail Consortium showed overall shop price inflation decreased to 1.0% in April, helped by Easter discounts. Britain's official rate of headline inflation rose to 3.3% in March.
Supermarket Market Share Dynamics
Worldpanel said that over the 12 weeks to April 19, Tesco and Sainsbury's continued to win market share.
Discounter Lidl GB remained the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, while online supermarket Ocado remained the fastest growing overall. Asda continued to lose share.
UK Supermarkets' Market Share and Sales Growth (%)
Market share Market % change in
12 weeks to share 12 sales
April 19 weeks to (year-on-ye
2026 April 20 ar)
2025
Tesco 28.1 27.7 4.3
Sainsbury's 15.5 15.3 4.5
Asda 11.6 12.2 -2.4
Aldi 10.6 10.8 1.2
Morrisons 8.4 8.5 1.1
Lidl 8.4 8.0 8.8
Co-operative 5.1 5.4 -2.2
Waitrose 4.6 4.6 3.8
Iceland 2.3 2.3 2.1
Ocado 2.2 2.0 11.3
Source: Worldpanel by Numerator
(Reporting by James Davey; editing by Sarah Young and Hugh Lawson)
