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UK businesses stay downbeat about economy, surveys show

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 31, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: May 31, 2026

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UK Businesses Stay Downbeat on Economic Outlook Despite Slight Confidence Uptick

Business Sentiment and Economic Survey Findings

Overview of Business Confidence

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - British businesses remain downbeat about the economic outlook for the months to come, according to a survey from the Confederation of British Industry, although a separate Institute of Directors survey showed smaller firms were less negative.

Key Factors Impacting Outlook

"Activity continues to be buffeted by weak household spending and clients' reluctance to commit to big expenditure," CBI Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said. "Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are adding another layer of pressure, with firms increasingly alert to the risk of further cost increases."

Survey Data and Recent Trends

CBI Survey Results

Output and Price Expectations

• The output expectations balance for CBI members for the next three months edged up to -24 in May from -25 in April but was well below February's 15-month high of -13, before the Iran war

• The output balance for the three months to May fell to -31 from -24 in April, above March's 4-month low of -35

• Selling price expectations remained elevated but fell from April's three-year high

Institute of Directors (IoD) Survey Results

Economic Confidence Index

• The IoD's economic confidence index rose to -53 in May from -64 in April, having touched its lowest in March since the series began in 2016

Survey Methodology

• The CBI data is based on 659 responses between April 27 and May 13 to its surveys of manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers, and consumer- and business services firms

• The IoD data is based on 615 responses between May 15 and May 27, almost half of which employed less than 10 people

(Reporting by David MillikenEditing by William Schomberg)

Key Takeaways

  • The CBI’s output expectations for the coming three months remained deeply negative in May at around –24, while actual output weakened further with a –31 balance, and order book conditions hit their worst since 2020. (cbi.org.uk)
  • Selling price expectations among manufacturers rose to their highest since early 2023, reflecting mounting cost pressures amid ongoing Middle East tensions. (cbi.org.uk)
  • The IoD’s economic confidence index improved in May to –53 from –64 in April, indicating that smaller firms are slightly less negative, although confidence remains well below neutral. (lse.co.uk)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What do recent surveys say about UK business confidence?
Surveys from CBI and IoD show UK businesses remain downbeat, though some indicators like the IoD confidence index have improved.
What factors are impacting UK business sentiment?
Weak household spending, cautious client expenditure, and Middle East tensions leading to cost pressures are key factors.
How have output expectations changed in recent months?
CBI output expectations slightly improved in May, but remain significantly lower than earlier in the year.
What is the basis of the CBI and IoD survey data?
CBI data is based on 659 responses from various sectors, while IoD surveyed 615 directors, mostly from small firms.
How have selling price expectations changed?
Selling price expectations stayed high but fell from April’s three-year peak according to the surveys.

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