TUI narrows 2026 operating profit outlook

TUI Lowers 2026 Profit Outlook as Geopolitical Tensions Shift Booking Trends

Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on TUI's Financial Performance and Booking Trends

By Joanna Plucinska

Profit Outlook and Booking Patterns

Sept 22 (Reuters) - Germany's TUI narrowed its outlook for 2026 underlying operating earnings on Tuesday, saying war in the Middle East meant customers were making later bookings, although demand was strong into the fourth quarter.

Shares in TUI, Europe's largest tour operator, were down 1.93% at 0805 GMT, underperforming the wider DAX.

Jet Fuel Prices and Customer Hesitancy

Jet fuel prices have surged as a result of the disruption linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and airlines have struggled to pass on increased costs, while customers are more hesitant about making travel plans.

Company Statement on Booking Environment

"Early indications for the new winter season point to a continuation of the later booking environment against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty," the company said in a statement.

Booking Trends and Market Performance

Analysts pointed to increased forward bookings in recent weeks.

Booked capacity for the core markets in Germany and Britain was up 1% since TUI's last results report on August 12, although overall reservations across segments were down compared to last year, according to the results.

Profit Forecast Adjustments

TUI, which runs cruise ships, airlines and hotels, cut its profit forecast and suspended its revenue guidance in March in response to the impact of the Iran war, which began at the end of February.

The travel group expects annual underlying earnings before interest and taxes to reach between €1.2 billion and €1.3 billion ($1.4 billion and $1.5 billion), instead of the previously forecast €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion.

Cost-Cutting and Efficiency Initiatives

It said its cost-cutting and efficiency initiatives had strengthened its position and in some cases, it had limited the number of flights available.

Jet Fuel Hedging Details

It also published details of its jet fuel hedging that is designed to stabilise costs associated with the spike in prices.

Upcoming Financial Reporting

The company will report its full-year results for 2026 on December 9.

($1 = 0.8722 euros)

(Reporting by Tristan Veyet in Gdansk and Joanna Plucinska in London, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak, Louise Heavens and Barbara Lewis)