Russian-led economic union considers suspending Armenia over EU ambitions
Armenia's EU Aspirations and Tensions with the Eurasian Economic Union
By Guy Faulconbridge and Lucy Papachristou
EAEU's Warning and Call for Referendum
MOSCOW, May 29 (Reuters) - A Russian-led economic union of former Soviet republics said on Friday it would consider suspending Armenia for seeking European Union membership and called on Yerevan to hold a referendum so its people could vote on which path to take.
Russia, distracted by the war in Ukraine, is trying to keep Armenia in its orbit but Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who faces an election on June 7, has tried to plot a path westwards while criticising Moscow in public.
After a meeting in Astana, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) said it will consider suspending Armenia later this year out of concerns its pursuit of EU membership jeopardises the union's economic security.
Risks to Economic Security
The leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan said that Armenia's westward integration posed "significant risks to the economic security" of the EAEU, and that its continued membership would be reviewed at the group's next meeting in December.
They also called on Yerevan to hold a popular referendum on joining the EU, and to include an option of staying in the Moscow-led group, founded in 2015.
Putin's Response and Armenia's Political Climate
Statements from the Astana Summit
Speaking after the Astana summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the EAEU would be forced to "scale back... practically all our work with Armenia concerning integration processes in the economic sphere".
He said the peoples of Russia and Armenia have a "special relationship" and it was up to Armenians to decide in which direction to steer their country.
"Whatever decisions are made, this will not damage our humanitarian ties; it will not damage our political ties," Putin said, adding: "Everything needs to be weighed up, carefully considered and a decision made."
Pashinyan's Absence and Election Context
Pashinyan was absent from Astana, citing his active campaign in a parliamentary election to be held next week.
Economic Pressure and Potential Consequences
Russia's Economic Leverage
ECONOMIC PRESSURE
Russia, with the EAEU's largest economy by far, has been dialing up the pressure on Armenia in recent weeks, slapping temporary restrictions on agricultural imports and threatening to halt supplies of cheap Russian oil products and gas to the South Caucasus country, upon which it heavily relies.
Upcoming Election and Political Stakes
The June 7 election pits Pashinyan, who has sought closer ties with the EU and the United States, against an array of mostly pro-Russian opposition parties. Recent polls show Pashinyan's Civil Contract party in the lead with around 30% support.
Trade, Energy, and Economic Impact
Moscow has repeatedly said that Yerevan's membership in the EAEU is incompatible with its EU aspirations. Armenia passed a law last year officially launching its EU accession process.
Suspension from the EAEU would result in immediate shocks to the economy of Armenia, a country of some 3 million people. Armenia's gross domestic product per capita was about half of Russia's in 2024, according to World Bank data.
Russia accounted for about 35% of Armenia's foreign trade last year, while the EU accounted for roughly 11%, according to government statistics cited by Armenian media. Armenia also purchased 82% of its gas last year from Russia.
Reporting and Editorial Credits
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Kirsten Donovan)
